Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

1/16 Game 2

Takaharu Ooi finished 1st (+60.4pt). The game was decided in South 3: Takaharu Ooi ron 12,000 from Kazuma Ishii, which moved Takaharu Ooi's expected points by +40.4.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Takaharu Ooi● Kazuma Ishii● Sayaka Kayamori● Namba Shibukawa0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Takaharu● Kazuma● Sayaka● Namba
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultKazuma Ishii
1st-place chance
Sayaka Kayamori
1st-place chance
Takaharu Ooi
1st-place chance
Namba Shibukawa
1st-place chance
Kazuma Ishii
Expected pt change
Sayaka Kayamori
Expected pt change
Takaharu Ooi
Expected pt change
Namba Shibukawa
Expected pt change
East 1Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 4,00026%26%24%25%-6.9+10.0-0.2-2.9
East 2Exhaustive draw20%33%25%22%-2.4-4.1-2.4+8.9
East 3, 1 honbaSayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Kazuma Ishii19%29%23%29%-22.2+29.0-4.3-2.5
East 4Kazuma Ishii ron 12,000 from Namba Shibukawa8%55%15%23%+39.1+1.6-2.8-37.9
South 1Kazuma Ishii ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa25%56%13%6%+4.5-0.7-0.2-3.7
South 1, 1 honbaTakaharu Ooi tsumo 8,00028%55%14%3%-15.4-4.2+24.5-4.9
South 2Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,00017%51%28%4%-5.9-15.3-5.1+26.4
South 3Takaharu Ooi ron 12,000 from Kazuma Ishii18%38%29%15%-35.4-8.7+40.4+3.6
South 3, 1 honbaSayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa1%14%77%8%+3.0+32.0-16.2-18.9
South 4Takaharu Ooi tsumo 1,1000%56%40%3%-9.9-21.8+27.4+4.3

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)