Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/16 Table B Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Kosuke Nagai, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +45.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Geki Shimoishi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Geki Shimoishi Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -2.5 | -1.5 | +6.1 | -2.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 24% | 29% | 25% | +0.6 | -2.0 | +1.7 | -0.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Geki Shimoishi ron 2,000 from Arisa Date | 23% | 22% | 31% | 23% | -7.5 | +10.2 | -5.3 | +2.6 |
| East 4 | Geki Shimoishi tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 30% | 25% | 26% | -10.4 | +40.2 | -6.6 | -23.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 71% | 14% | 7% | -4.9 | -0.8 | +4.7 | +1.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 70% | 18% | 8% | -5.3 | -1.2 | +3.9 | +2.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 2% | 72% | 18% | 8% | +2.1 | -17.5 | +45.6 | -30.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 12,000 from Geki Shimoishi | 1% | 30% | 68% | 2% | -10.6 | -31.6 | +9.0 | +33.3 |
| South 4 | Geki Shimoishi tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 93% | 6% | -9.8 | +16.7 | +1.6 | -8.6 |