Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/16 Table B Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Nagai Kosuke, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +44.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Shimoishi Geki 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Shimoishi Geki Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -3.3 | -0.6 | +4.8 | -0.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 22% | 25% | 28% | 25% | +1.7 | -5.6 | +1.8 | +2.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Shimoishi Geki ron 2,000 from Date Arisa | 24% | 20% | 30% | 27% | -7.8 | +14.3 | -3.3 | -3.2 |
| East 4 | Shimoishi Geki tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 31% | 27% | 23% | -9.0 | +37.8 | -6.9 | -22.0 |
| South 1 | Draw | 8% | 69% | 16% | 7% | -5.5 | -1.6 | +3.5 | +3.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 5% | 68% | 17% | 9% | -6.7 | +1.2 | +5.5 | 0.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Nagai Kosuke | 2% | 72% | 17% | 8% | +3.1 | -18.5 | +44.8 | -29.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Nagai Kosuke ron 12,000 from Shimoishi Geki | 1% | 29% | 69% | 2% | -11.3 | -30.2 | +9.3 | +32.2 |
| South 4 | Shimoishi Geki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 2% | 94% | 5% | -9.5 | +15.8 | +1.3 | -7.5 |