Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/20 Game 1
Hagiwara Masato finished 1st (+52.0pt). The game was decided in South 4: Hagiwara Masato ron 2,000 from Takeuchi Genta, which moved Hagiwara Masato's expected points by +39.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Takeuchi Genta 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Takeuchi Genta Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takeuchi Genta tsumo 5,200 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -11.3 | -1.8 | -2.0 | +15.1 |
| East 2 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 7,800 | 17% | 24% | 23% | 36% | -4.1 | +21.9 | -6.9 | -10.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 15% | 39% | 19% | 27% | +2.2 | +3.0 | -2.2 | -2.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 41% | 18% | 25% | -11.3 | +34.1 | -12.8 | -10.0 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Draw | 6% | 74% | 7% | 13% | -6.5 | -0.6 | +3.6 | +3.6 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Takeuchi Genta ron 3,900 from Hagiwara Masato | 6% | 72% | 8% | 14% | -1.3 | -10.9 | -0.6 | +12.8 |
| East 3 | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Takeuchi Genta | 5% | 63% | 10% | 22% | +1.1 | -1.0 | +30.5 | -30.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takeuchi Genta tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 62% | 23% | 8% | -6.4 | 0.0 | -13.8 | +20.2 |
| East 4 | Draw | 5% | 64% | 14% | 18% | +1.9 | +0.1 | +6.2 | -8.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | HIRO Shibata tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 65% | 18% | 11% | +33.7 | -12.2 | -11.0 | -10.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | HIRO Shibata tsumo 18,000 | 22% | 53% | 15% | 11% | +51.5 | -21.3 | -16.1 | -14.1 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 2,000 | 71% | 20% | 5% | 4% | -0.4 | -6.0 | +10.1 | -3.7 |
| South 2 | Draw | 75% | 14% | 8% | 3% | -4.0 | +8.4 | -3.6 | -0.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 5,800 from Date Arisa | 69% | 21% | 7% | 4% | -2.5 | +15.2 | -13.8 | +1.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Draw | 61% | 33% | 3% | 2% | +0.1 | -2.9 | +7.2 | -4.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Date Arisa ron 3,900 from HIRO Shibata | 64% | 30% | 4% | 2% | -17.4 | +6.0 | +11.5 | 0.0 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 40% | 47% | 9% | 4% | -16.1 | -17.9 | +42.5 | -8.5 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Takeuchi Genta tsumo 4,000 | 28% | 27% | 44% | 2% | -3.8 | -1.0 | -1.4 | +6.2 |
| South 4 | Hagiwara Masato ron 2,000 from Takeuchi Genta | 26% | 27% | 44% | 3% | -18.4 | +39.7 | -14.4 | -6.9 |