Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/20 Game 1
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+52.0pt). The game was decided in South 4: Masato Hagiwara ron 2,000 from Genta Takeuchi, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +39.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Genta Takeuchi tsumo 5,200 | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -6.4 | -4.1 | -5.3 | +15.8 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 7,800 | 21% | 23% | 22% | 35% | -9.1 | +25.0 | -6.4 | -9.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 41% | 17% | 27% | +3.1 | +0.9 | +0.1 | -4.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 42% | 18% | 24% | -11.1 | +33.8 | -13.6 | -9.1 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 74% | 8% | 12% | -5.7 | +0.8 | +3.2 | +1.6 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 5% | 74% | 8% | 13% | -0.7 | -11.9 | -3.5 | +16.1 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Genta Takeuchi | 6% | 63% | 8% | 24% | +0.6 | -0.3 | +32.4 | -32.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Genta Takeuchi tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 62% | 23% | 9% | -5.4 | -2.7 | -12.0 | +20.1 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 61% | 15% | 18% | -0.1 | +2.0 | +4.9 | -6.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | HIRO Shibata tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 66% | 17% | 11% | +32.8 | -9.6 | -12.9 | -10.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | HIRO Shibata tsumo 18,000 | 19% | 57% | 13% | 11% | +52.8 | -24.3 | -14.2 | -14.2 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 2,000 | 72% | 19% | 5% | 4% | -0.4 | -4.5 | +9.3 | -4.5 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 75% | 16% | 7% | 3% | -4.0 | +7.9 | -2.5 | -1.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,800 from Arisa Date | 68% | 22% | 7% | 3% | -3.6 | +14.3 | -12.7 | +2.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 59% | 35% | 3% | 3% | +2.9 | -3.9 | +6.2 | -5.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from HIRO Shibata | 66% | 29% | 4% | 2% | -18.4 | +7.2 | +12.2 | -1.0 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 41% | 48% | 9% | 2% | -17.1 | -17.2 | +41.2 | -6.9 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Genta Takeuchi tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 29% | 43% | 2% | -4.0 | -1.7 | -1.6 | +7.3 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,000 from Genta Takeuchi | 25% | 27% | 44% | 4% | -17.7 | +39.4 | -13.5 | -8.2 |