Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/23 Game 1
Nagai Kosuke finished 1st (+59.6pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000, which moved Nagai Kosuke's expected points by +37.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shibukawa Namba ron 7,700 from Tojyo Rio | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +24.8 | -2.1 | 0.0 | -22.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 2,700 | 42% | 22% | 24% | 12% | -5.6 | +8.3 | -2.5 | -0.2 |
| East 2 | Shibukawa Namba ron 1,000 from Nagai Kosuke | 37% | 28% | 23% | 13% | +6.7 | -3.7 | -0.5 | -2.5 |
| East 3 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 2,000 | 45% | 23% | 20% | 11% | +11.2 | -0.9 | -5.2 | -5.1 |
| East 4 | Draw | 56% | 21% | 15% | 9% | -1.7 | -2.7 | -1.8 | +6.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tojyo Rio tsumo 3,000 | 55% | 19% | 14% | 11% | -3.7 | -2.2 | -4.5 | +10.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000 | 52% | 19% | 12% | 17% | -11.1 | +37.1 | -6.6 | -19.4 |
| South 1 | Draw | 34% | 52% | 9% | 5% | +5.7 | -4.0 | -3.7 | +2.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke ron 3,900 from Takizawa Kazunori | 40% | 46% | 8% | 7% | -5.8 | +15.1 | -9.7 | +0.4 |
| South 2 | Draw | 27% | 64% | 4% | 5% | -2.4 | +4.9 | -0.4 | -2.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Tojyo Rio tsumo 1,100 | 22% | 71% | 4% | 4% | -1.3 | -0.3 | -4.5 | +6.1 |
| South 3 | Tojyo Rio ron 3,200 from Takizawa Kazunori | 20% | 74% | 3% | 4% | -1.3 | +5.1 | -12.1 | +8.3 |
| South 4 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 84% | 0% | 5% | -14.3 | -9.3 | -5.3 | +28.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Tojyo Rio tsumo 3,000 | 11% | 72% | 0% | 17% | -9.6 | -2.5 | -1.2 | +13.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Nagai Kosuke ron 2,000 from Tojyo Rio | 5% | 68% | 0% | 27% | -4.8 | +16.6 | +0.6 | -12.4 |