Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/23 Game 1
Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+59.6pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +35.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 7,700 from Rio Tojyo | 23% | 25% | 25% | 28% | +24.0 | -3.3 | +1.3 | -22.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 2,700 | 40% | 22% | 24% | 14% | -4.6 | +11.4 | -4.1 | -2.7 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa ron 1,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 37% | 30% | 21% | 12% | +6.9 | -8.3 | +3.4 | -2.0 |
| East 3 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 2,000 | 44% | 22% | 23% | 12% | +11.0 | +0.5 | -7.4 | -4.1 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 55% | 21% | 16% | 9% | -2.6 | -0.8 | -1.5 | +4.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 3,000 | 53% | 20% | 15% | 12% | -2.2 | -2.7 | -4.8 | +9.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000 | 51% | 20% | 14% | 16% | -11.2 | +35.8 | -6.4 | -18.1 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 51% | 10% | 6% | +5.5 | -3.8 | -2.8 | +1.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 3,900 from Kazunori Takizawa | 40% | 46% | 9% | 6% | -4.8 | +15.8 | -11.7 | +0.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 64% | 3% | 4% | -4.1 | +5.3 | +0.1 | -1.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 1,100 | 22% | 71% | 3% | 4% | +0.3 | -0.3 | -6.0 | +6.0 |
| South 3 | Rio Tojyo ron 3,200 from Kazunori Takizawa | 20% | 74% | 2% | 4% | -1.6 | +4.9 | -10.8 | +7.5 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 84% | 0% | 4% | -14.4 | -8.7 | -5.4 | +28.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 3,000 | 11% | 74% | 0% | 16% | -9.4 | -3.7 | -1.1 | +14.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 2,000 from Rio Tojyo | 5% | 68% | 0% | 27% | -5.0 | +16.9 | +0.7 | -12.5 |