Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/27 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+49.2pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Aki Nikaido ron 2,600 from Geki Shimoishi, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +44.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Geki Shimoishi 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Megumu Aikawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Geki Shimoishi Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Megumu Aikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Geki Shimoishi tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -11.9 | +19.6 | -3.5 | -4.2 |
| East 2 | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 2,000 | 16% | 40% | 22% | 21% | -1.1 | -3.7 | -0.9 | +5.6 |
| East 3 | Geki Shimoishi tsumo 2,700 | 17% | 37% | 22% | 25% | -4.7 | +11.7 | -7.6 | +0.6 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 49% | 14% | 24% | +30.8 | -5.9 | -5.5 | -19.4 |
| South 1 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 4,000 | 34% | 43% | 12% | 12% | -10.7 | -2.0 | +14.4 | -1.7 |
| South 2 | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 41% | 21% | 14% | -7.2 | -25.2 | -14.0 | +46.4 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 17% | 14% | 50% | -6.6 | +4.6 | +8.8 | -6.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 5,800 from Megumu Aikawa | 17% | 23% | 19% | 41% | -0.5 | -1.5 | +29.1 | -27.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 1,100 | 17% | 20% | 42% | 21% | +12.2 | -3.1 | +6.0 | -15.1 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 16% | 52% | 13% | +7.6 | +6.6 | -16.5 | +2.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 26% | 28% | 16% | -4.1 | -3.2 | -1.3 | +8.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 2,600 from Geki Shimoishi | 28% | 25% | 29% | 19% | +44.2 | -37.1 | -2.8 | -4.4 |