Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/29 Game 1
Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+60.8pt). The game was decided in South 4, 5 honba: Honda Tomohiro ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +55.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 5,200 from Mizuhara Akina | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -5.9 | -13.6 | +18.9 | +0.7 |
| East 2 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 8,000 | 19% | 16% | 39% | 26% | -3.0 | -12.4 | -6.2 | +21.6 |
| East 3 | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 16% | 9% | 32% | 42% | -18.5 | -0.1 | -2.8 | +21.4 |
| East 4 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 7% | 24% | 63% | +19.4 | -7.1 | -2.6 | -9.7 |
| South 1 | Draw | 14% | 6% | 25% | 55% | -6.2 | +2.6 | +6.5 | -3.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 18,000 | 10% | 7% | 31% | 52% | -22.2 | +61.2 | -18.6 | -20.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 4% | 48% | 19% | 29% | +46.5 | -48.6 | -3.2 | +5.3 |
| South 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,000 | 32% | 12% | 19% | 37% | -23.3 | -15.7 | +63.1 | -24.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 4% | 1% | 86% | 10% | +7.0 | -2.4 | +0.2 | -4.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Draw | 1% | 0% | 91% | 8% | -5.0 | -1.4 | -2.1 | +8.6 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Draw | 3% | 1% | 87% | 10% | +3.4 | +0.6 | -7.0 | +3.0 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Draw | 7% | 2% | 77% | 14% | +0.5 | +3.0 | -8.8 | +5.3 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka | 14% | 3% | 64% | 19% | -40.1 | +7.4 | -23.0 | +55.7 |
| South 4, 6 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 93% | -5.0 | +7.6 | -2.8 | +0.2 |