Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

1/29 Game 1

Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+60.8pt). The game was decided in South 4, 5 honba: Honda Tomohiro ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +55.7.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2South 4End● Honda Tomohiro● Okada Sayaka● Mizuhara Akina● Matsumoto Yoshihiro0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 3End● Honda● Okada● Mizuhara● Matsumoto
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultOkada Sayaka
1st-place chance
Mizuhara Akina
1st-place chance
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
1st-place chance
Honda Tomohiro
1st-place chance
Okada Sayaka
Expected pt change
Mizuhara Akina
Expected pt change
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
Expected pt change
Honda Tomohiro
Expected pt change
East 1Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 5,200 from Mizuhara Akina25%24%26%25%-5.9-13.6+18.9+0.7
East 2Honda Tomohiro tsumo 8,00019%16%39%26%-3.0-12.4-6.2+21.6
East 3Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka16%9%32%42%-18.5-0.1-2.8+21.4
East 4Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,0007%7%24%63%+19.4-7.1-2.6-9.7
South 1Draw14%6%25%55%-6.2+2.6+6.5-3.0
South 2, 1 honbaMizuhara Akina tsumo 18,00010%7%31%52%-22.2+61.2-18.6-20.4
South 2, 2 honbaOkada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Mizuhara Akina4%48%19%29%+46.5-48.6-3.2+5.3
South 3Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,00032%12%19%37%-23.3-15.7+63.1-24.1
South 3, 1 honbaDraw4%1%86%10%+7.0-2.4+0.2-4.8
South 4, 2 honbaDraw1%0%91%8%-5.0-1.4-2.1+8.6
South 4, 3 honbaDraw3%1%87%10%+3.4+0.6-7.0+3.0
South 4, 4 honbaDraw7%2%77%14%+0.5+3.0-8.8+5.3
South 4, 5 honbaHonda Tomohiro ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka14%3%64%19%-40.1+7.4-23.0+55.7
South 4, 6 honbaMizuhara Akina tsumo 2,0000%0%7%93%-5.0+7.6-2.8+0.2

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)