Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
1/29 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+56.9pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Namba Shibukawa ron 3,900 from Yu Suzuki, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +28.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 25% | 23% | 27% | -7.9 | +10.5 | +0.7 | -3.4 |
| East 2 | Yu Suzuki ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 19% | 32% | 24% | 25% | +20.3 | -0.3 | -20.0 | 0.0 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 6,000 | 33% | 31% | 13% | 23% | -6.7 | -6.0 | +17.3 | -4.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 27% | 22% | 21% | +8.8 | -2.3 | -3.1 | -3.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 36% | 25% | 20% | 20% | -7.9 | +31.6 | -8.8 | -14.8 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 54% | 11% | 9% | +0.8 | -7.8 | +5.6 | +1.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 45% | 17% | 10% | +9.4 | -4.7 | -2.0 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 41% | 15% | 9% | +8.5 | -5.0 | -2.9 | -0.5 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 46% | 33% | 13% | 8% | +34.0 | -4.6 | -29.1 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Yu Suzuki | 79% | 16% | 2% | 3% | -16.8 | +3.8 | +17.0 | -4.0 |
| South 2 | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 65% | 25% | 5% | 5% | +2.5 | -3.5 | -19.6 | +20.6 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Yu Suzuki | 70% | 18% | 2% | 9% | -36.9 | +10.0 | +25.0 | +1.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 2,000 from Yu Suzuki | 27% | 42% | 12% | 18% | -8.9 | +18.2 | -6.8 | -2.5 |
| South 4 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,900 from Yu Suzuki | 11% | 71% | 4% | 14% | -17.3 | +1.5 | -0.4 | +16.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 6% | 75% | 4% | 16% | -3.3 | +0.3 | -6.8 | +9.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 74% | 1% | 22% | -1.1 | -7.3 | -0.2 | +8.6 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,900 from Yu Suzuki | 4% | 60% | 1% | 35% | -13.7 | -17.6 | +2.8 | +28.5 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,100 | 1% | 14% | 0% | 85% | -10.1 | -5.0 | +11.1 | +4.0 |