Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/5 Game 2
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+60.0pt). The game was decided in East 1: Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +28.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 25% | 25% | 23% | +28.2 | -9.5 | -11.0 | -7.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 4,000 | 48% | 18% | 17% | 18% | -5.7 | -4.1 | -1.2 | +11.0 |
| East 2 | Takaki Asai ron 3,200 from Kei Nakabayashi | 43% | 15% | 17% | 24% | +2.2 | -9.4 | +5.5 | +1.7 |
| East 3 | Takaki Asai tsumo 3,000 | 46% | 10% | 19% | 25% | -6.4 | -2.3 | +10.7 | -1.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,700 | 40% | 10% | 26% | 24% | +1.3 | +5.3 | -2.7 | -3.9 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 42% | 12% | 24% | 22% | +24.4 | -19.7 | -1.8 | -2.9 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Takaki Asai | 67% | 4% | 16% | 13% | +1.9 | +8.0 | -12.2 | +2.4 |
| South 2 | Ken Sonoda ron 2,000 from Takaki Asai | 73% | 4% | 10% | 13% | +9.2 | -2.9 | -9.2 | +2.9 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 85% | 0% | 5% | 9% | +2.0 | +28.8 | -20.6 | -10.2 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,800 from Takaki Asai | 93% | 1% | 0% | 6% | -2.4 | -8.8 | -10.2 | +21.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 88% | 1% | 0% | 11% | +3.1 | +25.4 | -2.3 | -26.3 |