Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/6 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 7,800, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +20.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Megumu Aikawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Megumu Aikawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 4,800 from Sayaka Kayamori | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | +12.2 | +1.4 | -0.4 | -13.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Megumu Aikawa ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 33% | 26% | 24% | 18% | -11.4 | -1.1 | +12.4 | +0.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 26% | 33% | 18% | +8.3 | -4.7 | -2.9 | -0.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Megumu Aikawa ron 2,900 from Kana Nakada | 30% | 22% | 30% | 18% | 0.0 | -8.0 | +9.8 | -1.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Kana Nakada | 30% | 17% | 38% | 16% | +15.2 | -15.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| East 4 | Megumu Aikawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 42% | 9% | 35% | 15% | -2.6 | -0.9 | +24.3 | -20.8 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 7,800 | 31% | 5% | 60% | 4% | +20.1 | -3.0 | -12.6 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 2,700 | 55% | 4% | 39% | 3% | -5.3 | -1.9 | +9.2 | -2.0 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Megumu Aikawa | 46% | 3% | 49% | 2% | +7.5 | -5.2 | -8.9 | +6.6 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 62% | 0% | 35% | 3% | +3.5 | -10.7 | -12.3 | +19.5 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,600 from Kana Nakada | 74% | 0% | 19% | 7% | +13.3 | -3.6 | -4.6 | -5.1 |