Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/6 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 7,800, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +19.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Nakada Kana 1st-place chance | Aikawa Megumu 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Nakada Kana Expected pt change | Aikawa Megumu Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 4,800 from Kayamori Sayaka | 24% | 26% | 25% | 24% | +13.3 | -1.4 | +0.1 | -12.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aikawa Megumu ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 33% | 25% | 25% | 18% | -14.5 | -0.2 | +11.4 | +3.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 22% | 27% | 32% | 20% | +11.8 | -5.5 | -1.0 | -5.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aikawa Megumu ron 2,900 from Nakada Kana | 32% | 20% | 31% | 17% | -3.4 | -8.0 | +10.5 | +0.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Nakada Kana | 28% | 15% | 41% | 17% | +17.2 | -14.3 | -0.8 | -2.0 |
| East 4 | Aikawa Megumu ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 41% | 9% | 37% | 14% | -2.0 | -0.2 | +22.8 | -20.6 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 7,800 | 32% | 5% | 60% | 3% | +19.6 | -4.6 | -12.3 | -2.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aikawa Megumu tsumo 2,700 | 54% | 4% | 39% | 3% | -6.3 | -0.5 | +9.1 | -2.4 |
| South 2 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,600 from Aikawa Megumu | 44% | 4% | 50% | 2% | +7.8 | -4.6 | -8.2 | +5.0 |
| South 3 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 61% | 0% | 36% | 3% | +4.8 | -11.0 | -13.0 | +19.2 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,600 from Nakada Kana | 75% | 0% | 19% | 6% | +12.8 | -4.1 | -5.0 | -3.7 |