Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/9 Game 1
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+64.7pt). The game was decided in South 1: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +26.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Asami Maki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Asami Maki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 26% | 26% | 23% | -5.7 | +9.2 | -2.2 | -1.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 6,000 | 21% | 33% | 24% | 23% | -4.2 | +13.9 | -5.2 | -4.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 1,300 from Asami Maki | 18% | 43% | 20% | 20% | +4.6 | -0.7 | -5.8 | +2.0 |
| East 3 | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,200 from Asami Maki | 19% | 42% | 18% | 21% | +1.3 | +1.2 | -16.6 | +14.0 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 3,000 | 20% | 43% | 9% | 28% | -1.0 | -2.6 | -1.5 | +5.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 19% | 40% | 9% | 32% | -4.9 | +4.2 | -5.3 | +5.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Asami Maki tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 43% | 5% | 36% | -8.6 | -5.1 | +25.3 | -11.6 |
| South 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 41% | 16% | 29% | -13.8 | +26.2 | -4.7 | -7.7 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Asami Maki | 3% | 72% | 9% | 15% | +5.3 | +20.1 | -27.5 | +2.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Asami Maki ron 12,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 1% | 90% | 2% | 8% | +0.4 | +1.5 | +32.7 | -34.6 |
| South 3 | Asami Maki ron 3,900 from Okada Sayaka | 0% | 94% | 3% | 2% | -10.8 | -0.8 | +10.7 | +0.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 94% | 5% | 1% | -2.6 | +2.1 | +2.4 | -1.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,200 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 94% | 4% | 1% | -7.3 | -4.4 | -3.8 | +15.5 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 97% | 1% | 3% | -4.4 | -4.4 | -15.2 | +24.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,500 from Okada Sayaka | 0% | 92% | 1% | 7% | -2.6 | -1.2 | +0.7 | +3.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,900 from Okada Sayaka | 0% | 90% | 1% | 9% | -4.8 | -0.6 | -1.4 | +6.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Asami Maki ron 1,300 from Okada Sayaka | 0% | 88% | 1% | 11% | -3.4 | +5.3 | +2.1 | -4.0 |