Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/9 Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+64.7pt). The game was decided in South 1: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +25.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Maki Asami Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -3.1 | +7.0 | -1.7 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 6,000 | 23% | 28% | 25% | 24% | -6.7 | +17.9 | -5.2 | -6.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 1,300 from Maki Asami | 18% | 44% | 19% | 19% | +4.0 | -0.2 | -5.3 | +1.5 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Maki Asami | 20% | 45% | 17% | 19% | -0.3 | +3.6 | -17.2 | +14.0 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 3,000 | 18% | 47% | 7% | 28% | -2.1 | -5.4 | -1.4 | +8.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 40% | 7% | 35% | -4.4 | +5.4 | -2.5 | +1.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Maki Asami tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 45% | 6% | 35% | -5.3 | -6.6 | +22.6 | -10.7 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 43% | 15% | 28% | -14.6 | +25.1 | -5.5 | -5.0 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Maki Asami | 3% | 71% | 9% | 17% | +5.1 | +21.0 | -25.8 | -0.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Maki Asami ron 12,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 1% | 91% | 2% | 7% | -0.4 | +1.1 | +31.4 | -32.1 |
| South 3 | Maki Asami ron 3,900 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 95% | 3% | 2% | -10.8 | -0.1 | +10.7 | +0.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 94% | 4% | 2% | -1.9 | +1.8 | +3.2 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 95% | 4% | 1% | -7.0 | -4.9 | -3.7 | +15.6 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 96% | 1% | 3% | -4.8 | -4.1 | -14.7 | +23.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,500 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 93% | 1% | 7% | -2.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +2.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 92% | 1% | 8% | -4.5 | -2.7 | -2.1 | +9.3 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Maki Asami ron 1,300 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 86% | 0% | 14% | -3.6 | +6.3 | +3.2 | -5.9 |