Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/9 Game 2
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+68.5pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +26.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 6,000 | 27% | 23% | 26% | 25% | +17.2 | -3.1 | -5.4 | -8.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi | 40% | 20% | 21% | 19% | +26.7 | +0.9 | -27.5 | -0.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 62% | 17% | 6% | 15% | -3.9 | +5.4 | -3.3 | +1.9 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 57% | 20% | 6% | 17% | -4.8 | -16.9 | -5.0 | +26.7 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 52% | 10% | 5% | 34% | -1.4 | -4.4 | +6.9 | -1.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 1,000 from Go Kobayashi | 51% | 9% | 7% | 33% | +2.4 | +0.9 | -7.9 | +4.6 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 54% | 8% | 3% | 35% | 0.0 | +3.6 | +0.8 | -4.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 2,900 from Go Kobayashi | 55% | 10% | 3% | 32% | +12.7 | -0.8 | -5.0 | -6.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 5,800 from Go Kobayashi | 70% | 7% | 3% | 20% | +12.2 | +0.6 | -11.1 | -1.6 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 82% | 4% | 1% | 13% | +0.1 | -5.0 | +3.9 | +1.0 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 81% | 4% | 1% | 14% | -2.4 | -1.4 | -0.2 | +4.0 |
| South 2, 5 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 1,000 from Go Kobayashi | 80% | 3% | 1% | 16% | +11.7 | -4.4 | -5.1 | -2.3 |
| South 3 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 16,000 | 93% | 0% | 0% | 7% | -10.1 | -2.3 | -11.5 | +24.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 76% | 0% | 0% | 24% | -3.9 | -0.6 | -0.9 | +5.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 68% | 0% | 0% | 32% | +10.3 | -2.0 | +9.5 | -17.8 |