Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/12 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+87.8pt). The game was decided in East 2: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +30.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Shota Akutsu 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Shota Akutsu Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Shota Akutsu | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | +31.2 | -2.9 | -29.6 | +1.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 5,200 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 48% | 21% | 9% | 22% | -15.4 | +15.3 | -1.4 | +1.6 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 32% | 10% | 24% | -4.4 | -18.1 | -8.1 | +30.5 |
| East 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Shota Akutsu | 28% | 17% | 6% | 49% | -3.7 | -1.3 | -15.7 | +20.6 |
| East 4 | Akina Mizuhara ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 18% | 11% | 1% | 70% | -24.5 | +2.1 | +1.0 | +21.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Shota Akutsu ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 4% | 5% | 0% | 91% | -20.8 | +1.6 | +19.5 | -0.3 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 5% | 1% | 93% | +2.2 | -2.0 | +0.9 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Shota Akutsu | 2% | 4% | 2% | 92% | -2.6 | +2.9 | -13.6 | +13.3 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 0% | 1% | 0% | 98% | +2.1 | -2.9 | -2.8 | +3.5 |
| South 3 | Shota Akutsu ron 5,800 from Kosuke Nagai | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.8 | -11.9 | +13.3 | +0.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 1,000 from Shota Akutsu | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +0.6 | +9.6 | -10.0 | -0.2 |
| South 4 | Shota Akutsu tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -16.0 | +3.6 | +14.5 | -2.2 |