Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

2/12 Game 1

Mizuhara Akina finished 1st (+87.8pt). The game was decided in East 2: Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,000, which moved Mizuhara Akina's expected points by +33.4.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Mizuhara Akina● Matsumoto Yoshihiro● Nagai Kosuke● Akutsu Shota0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Mizuhara● Matsumoto● Nagai● Akutsu
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMatsumoto Yoshihiro
1st-place chance
Nagai Kosuke
1st-place chance
Akutsu Shota
1st-place chance
Mizuhara Akina
1st-place chance
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
Expected pt change
Nagai Kosuke
Expected pt change
Akutsu Shota
Expected pt change
Mizuhara Akina
Expected pt change
East 1Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Akutsu Shota26%24%24%26%+32.1-1.0-30.9-0.2
East 1, 1 honbaNagai Kosuke ron 5,200 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro50%20%8%22%-16.5+17.8+0.1-1.4
East 2Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,00035%34%9%22%-6.8-20.1-6.5+33.4
East 3Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Akutsu Shota26%17%6%50%-1.0-0.8-16.3+18.1
East 4Mizuhara Akina ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro20%12%1%67%-26.2+0.8+2.5+22.9
East 4, 1 honbaAkutsu Shota ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro3%6%1%90%-20.3+2.1+17.6+0.6
South 1Draw1%4%1%93%+2.3-2.2+1.8-2.0
South 1, 1 honbaMizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Akutsu Shota2%5%1%92%-2.9+3.8-15.2+14.2
South 2Mizuhara Akina ron 2,000 from Nagai Kosuke0%2%0%98%+1.7-3.4-1.3+3.0
South 3Akutsu Shota ron 5,800 from Nagai Kosuke0%0%0%100%-0.6-12.1+12.6+0.1
South 3, 1 honbaNagai Kosuke ron 1,000 from Akutsu Shota0%0%0%100%+0.4+9.8-10.5+0.3
South 4Akutsu Shota tsumo 2,0000%0%0%100%-16.4+3.4+15.2-2.2

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)