Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/12 Game 2
Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+67.4pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +34.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 1,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -1.2 | -2.2 | +3.8 | -0.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 24% | 27% | 26% | -4.0 | +4.6 | -2.9 | +2.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 6,000 | 20% | 28% | 25% | 27% | -7.3 | +20.1 | -7.3 | -5.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 41% | 21% | 24% | -5.3 | -19.5 | -9.1 | +34.0 |
| East 3 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000 | 12% | 23% | 14% | 51% | +10.2 | -2.1 | -7.1 | -1.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 22% | 11% | 50% | -3.8 | +1.5 | -3.3 | +5.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 21% | 8% | 57% | +4.4 | +4.1 | -4.6 | -3.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Aki Nikaido | 17% | 25% | 7% | 52% | -4.7 | +8.8 | -5.3 | +1.2 |
| South 2 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 29% | 5% | 54% | -6.4 | -15.6 | -5.7 | +27.8 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 1% | 5% | 2% | 91% | -11.3 | -1.8 | +12.8 | +0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 1% | 4% | 4% | 92% | -26.9 | +27.8 | +2.6 | -3.4 |
| South 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 2,400 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 17% | 0% | 83% | -1.2 | -7.1 | +0.7 | +7.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 6% | 0% | 94% | +7.2 | -9.9 | +1.2 | +1.5 |