Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/12 Game 2
Hinata Aiko finished 1st (+67.4pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000, which moved Hinata Aiko's expected points by +34.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nikaido Aki ron 1,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 27% | 24% | 23% | 25% | -2.4 | -1.3 | +2.7 | +1.1 |
| East 2 | Draw | 24% | 24% | 27% | 26% | -3.9 | +4.9 | -2.2 | +1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 6,000 | 21% | 27% | 25% | 27% | -5.6 | +18.7 | -7.1 | -6.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 41% | 19% | 23% | -7.5 | -19.3 | -8.0 | +34.9 |
| East 3 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 4,000 | 13% | 22% | 15% | 50% | +11.5 | -1.8 | -9.0 | -0.7 |
| East 4 | Draw | 17% | 21% | 10% | 51% | -4.5 | +3.3 | -3.0 | +4.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 14% | 24% | 8% | 55% | +3.6 | +3.0 | -2.6 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,000 from Nikaido Aki | 17% | 25% | 8% | 51% | -5.3 | +9.2 | -6.2 | +2.3 |
| South 2 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 30% | 6% | 53% | -6.1 | -16.3 | -5.0 | +27.3 |
| South 3 | Nikaido Aki ron 3,900 from Shibukawa Namba | 2% | 5% | 2% | 91% | -11.6 | -0.8 | +12.5 | -0.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 1% | 4% | 4% | 91% | -26.2 | +26.2 | +2.8 | -2.8 |
| South 4 | Hinata Aiko ron 2,400 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 16% | 0% | 84% | -1.2 | -5.8 | -0.1 | +7.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 8% | 0% | 92% | +7.1 | -10.8 | +1.6 | +2.1 |