Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

2/17 Game 1

Kazunori Takizawa finished 1st (+67.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 6,000, which moved Kazunori Takizawa's expected points by +18.4.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 1End● Kazunori Takizawa● Namba Shibukawa● Naoki Setokuma● Akina Mizuhara0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Kazunori● Namba● Naoki● Akina
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultNamba Shibukawa
1st-place chance
Kazunori Takizawa
1st-place chance
Naoki Setokuma
1st-place chance
Akina Mizuhara
1st-place chance
Namba Shibukawa
Expected pt change
Kazunori Takizawa
Expected pt change
Naoki Setokuma
Expected pt change
Akina Mizuhara
Expected pt change
East 1Kazunori Takizawa ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma25%26%24%25%-1.7+3.3-1.9+0.3
East 2Kazunori Takizawa ron 5,800 from Naoki Setokuma23%28%24%25%-1.0+14.2-13.8+0.7
East 2, 1 honbaKazunori Takizawa tsumo 6,00022%37%15%25%-5.7+18.4-6.4-6.2
East 2, 2 honbaExhaustive draw15%55%11%19%+6.0-3.2+1.7-4.6
East 3, 3 honbaKazunori Takizawa ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa19%52%12%17%-10.5+15.4-5.5+0.6
East 4Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara11%69%6%13%-2.8+3.6+21.9-22.8
South 1Exhaustive draw8%77%11%4%+0.5-1.0-1.9+2.4
South 1, 1 honbaNamba Shibukawa ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma9%75%11%5%+36.4-2.6-31.8-2.0
South 1, 2 honbaKazunori Takizawa tsumo 4,00028%66%3%3%-10.2+13.0-2.5-0.3
South 2Namba Shibukawa ron 1,000 from Akina Mizuhara11%86%1%3%+4.6-1.1-3.1-0.5
South 3Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,00011%85%1%2%-5.9-1.6-14.2+21.6
South 4Kazunori Takizawa ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa6%88%0%6%-0.1+7.6-0.5-6.9

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)