Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/19 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+74.9pt). The game was decided in East 4: Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +28.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akutsu Shota 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Akutsu Shota Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akutsu Shota tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | +29.8 | -10.5 | -10.4 | -8.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Akutsu Shota tsumo 3,000 | 49% | 16% | 16% | 18% | +8.8 | -3.3 | -2.0 | -3.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 1,000 from Suzuki Taro | 58% | 13% | 16% | 14% | -4.6 | -1.9 | -0.6 | +7.1 |
| East 2 | Draw | 54% | 14% | 15% | 18% | -4.1 | +3.6 | +1.7 | -1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Akutsu Shota ron 8,000 from Suzuki Taro | 49% | 15% | 16% | 19% | +21.9 | -21.5 | +0.3 | -0.7 |
| East 3 | Date Arisa ron 6,400 from Akutsu Shota | 72% | 4% | 11% | 13% | -12.4 | -1.8 | -1.5 | +15.7 |
| East 4 | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 59% | 5% | 12% | 24% | -4.2 | +2.0 | -26.5 | +28.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 47% | 4% | 3% | 46% | -14.5 | -5.2 | -6.2 | +26.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Akutsu Shota ron 16,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 22% | 2% | 1% | 76% | +32.2 | +4.7 | -24.2 | -12.6 |
| South 1 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 2,000 | 53% | 1% | 0% | 46% | -1.2 | +3.7 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Suzuki Taro | 54% | 1% | 0% | 45% | -8.4 | -10.2 | +0.7 | +17.8 |
| South 3 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 5,200 | 32% | 0% | 0% | 68% | -5.8 | +9.0 | -7.0 | +3.7 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 4,000 | 20% | 0% | 0% | 81% | -9.0 | -0.2 | +4.4 | +4.9 |