Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/19 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+74.9pt). The game was decided in East 4: Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +29.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shota Akutsu 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Shota Akutsu Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shota Akutsu tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 23% | 26% | +27.4 | -10.1 | -6.8 | -10.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Shota Akutsu tsumo 3,000 | 47% | 17% | 18% | 17% | +8.4 | -3.3 | -2.6 | -2.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 1,000 from Taro Suzuki | 54% | 15% | 16% | 15% | -1.7 | -4.2 | -1.6 | +7.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 54% | 12% | 15% | 19% | -1.9 | +2.8 | +3.3 | -4.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Shota Akutsu ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 53% | 13% | 17% | 17% | +19.5 | -20.0 | +1.0 | -0.6 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date ron 6,400 from Shota Akutsu | 72% | 4% | 12% | 12% | -13.6 | +0.1 | -3.2 | +16.7 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 58% | 6% | 13% | 23% | -3.9 | +1.2 | -26.8 | +29.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 47% | 4% | 3% | 46% | -16.3 | -5.1 | -6.2 | +27.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Shota Akutsu ron 16,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 19% | 2% | 1% | 78% | +33.9 | +4.0 | -24.8 | -13.0 |
| South 1 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 2,000 | 51% | 1% | 0% | 48% | -0.8 | +5.4 | -1.6 | -3.0 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 54% | 1% | 0% | 44% | -9.0 | -11.6 | +1.4 | +19.3 |
| South 3 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 5,200 | 29% | 0% | 0% | 71% | -5.1 | +9.2 | -7.3 | +3.3 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 4,000 | 19% | 0% | 0% | 81% | -8.6 | -0.4 | +4.6 | +4.3 |