Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/27 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+71.5pt). The game was decided in South 4: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +48.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Asami Maki 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change | Asami Maki Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Asami Maki ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -2.8 | +6.1 | +3.2 | -6.6 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 23% | 27% | 27% | 22% | +3.8 | -0.8 | -11.2 | +8.2 |
| East 3 | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 27% | 20% | 28% | +11.6 | -3.4 | -7.6 | -0.6 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,800 from Takizawa Kazunori | 34% | 24% | 14% | 27% | -1.5 | +1.0 | -17.9 | +18.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 30% | 23% | 7% | 40% | +2.3 | +4.1 | -5.3 | -1.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Draw | 32% | 25% | 6% | 38% | -2.2 | +4.6 | +2.3 | -4.6 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Asami Maki tsumo 8,000 | 30% | 29% | 6% | 35% | -21.1 | +35.3 | -5.9 | -8.3 |
| South 2 | Draw | 9% | 68% | 3% | 21% | -1.2 | -1.3 | +2.4 | +0.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 5,200 | 7% | 70% | 3% | 20% | -7.0 | +1.0 | -10.0 | +16.1 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000 | 2% | 73% | 0% | 26% | -7.7 | -35.1 | -5.8 | +48.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Asami Maki ron 1,000 from Nagai Kosuke | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% | -0.9 | +2.3 | -0.6 | -0.8 |