Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
2/27 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+71.5pt). The game was decided in South 4: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +48.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Maki Asami Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Maki Asami ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 25% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +2.5 | +5.1 | -0.6 | -6.9 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 26% | 28% | 23% | 22% | -2.6 | -1.0 | -7.5 | +11.1 |
| East 3 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 4,000 | 24% | 27% | 19% | 30% | +13.7 | -2.2 | -7.2 | -4.3 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,800 from Kazunori Takizawa | 34% | 25% | 14% | 26% | -2.0 | -1.0 | -16.7 | +19.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 23% | 7% | 41% | +3.5 | +2.8 | -5.4 | -1.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 24% | 5% | 39% | -3.6 | +7.8 | +1.7 | -5.9 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Maki Asami tsumo 8,000 | 29% | 31% | 6% | 34% | -21.2 | +34.2 | -4.2 | -8.8 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 69% | 4% | 19% | -0.8 | +0.4 | +1.6 | -1.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 5,200 | 7% | 73% | 4% | 16% | -7.3 | -0.8 | -10.4 | +18.5 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000 | 1% | 73% | 0% | 26% | -7.0 | -34.6 | -6.4 | +48.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Maki Asami ron 1,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% | -0.9 | +1.8 | -0.5 | -0.4 |