Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

2/27 Game 1

Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+71.5pt). The game was decided in South 4: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +48.6.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Setokuma Naoki● Nagai Kosuke● Asami Maki● Takizawa Kazunori0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Setokuma● Nagai● Asami● Takizawa
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultNagai Kosuke
1st-place chance
Asami Maki
1st-place chance
Takizawa Kazunori
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Nagai Kosuke
Expected pt change
Asami Maki
Expected pt change
Takizawa Kazunori
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
East 1Asami Maki ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki26%24%24%26%-2.8+6.1+3.2-6.6
East 2Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Takizawa Kazunori23%27%27%22%+3.8-0.8-11.2+8.2
East 3Nagai Kosuke tsumo 4,00025%27%20%28%+11.6-3.4-7.6-0.6
East 4Setokuma Naoki ron 5,800 from Takizawa Kazunori34%24%14%27%-1.5+1.0-17.9+18.4
East 4, 1 honbaDraw30%23%7%40%+2.3+4.1-5.3-1.0
East 4, 2 honbaDraw32%25%6%38%-2.2+4.6+2.3-4.6
South 1, 3 honbaAsami Maki tsumo 8,00030%29%6%35%-21.1+35.3-5.9-8.3
South 2Draw9%68%3%21%-1.2-1.3+2.4+0.1
South 3, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki tsumo 5,2007%70%3%20%-7.0+1.0-10.0+16.1
South 4Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,0002%73%0%26%-7.7-35.1-5.8+48.6
South 4, 1 honbaAsami Maki ron 1,000 from Nagai Kosuke0%1%0%99%-0.9+2.3-0.6-0.8

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)