Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
3/2 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+57.4pt). The game was decided in South 3: Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Asai Takaki, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +39.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Date Arisa tsumo 2,700 | 27% | 24% | 24% | 25% | -8.9 | -3.2 | +0.8 | +11.4 |
| East 2 | Date Arisa tsumo 5,200 | 18% | 22% | 26% | 35% | -2.3 | -6.2 | -7.7 | +16.1 |
| East 3 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 16% | 19% | 48% | -11.6 | -10.7 | +31.4 | -9.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 2,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 11% | 11% | 41% | 37% | +1.1 | +9.1 | -8.7 | -1.5 |
| East 4 | Draw | 12% | 17% | 33% | 38% | +1.3 | +0.1 | +1.3 | -2.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 17% | 35% | 36% | -10.5 | -12.5 | -13.2 | +36.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Asai Takaki tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 6% | 17% | 71% | +19.9 | -6.1 | -5.5 | -8.3 |
| South 1 | Draw | 12% | 6% | 16% | 66% | -5.3 | +0.5 | +3.2 | +1.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 7% | 6% | 17% | 69% | -1.6 | +7.6 | -2.1 | -3.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 12,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 8% | 10% | 18% | 64% | -6.0 | +49.5 | -37.9 | -5.6 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 1,500 from Date Arisa | 4% | 41% | 4% | 52% | 0.0 | +8.3 | +0.3 | -8.7 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Asai Takaki tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 53% | 4% | 39% | +47.0 | -26.9 | -9.0 | -11.0 |
| South 3 | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Asai Takaki | 40% | 23% | 3% | 33% | -32.9 | -1.4 | -4.7 | +39.0 |
| South 4 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 1,300 from Date Arisa | 4% | 8% | 0% | 88% | -6.3 | +1.4 | +2.3 | +2.6 |