Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
3/2 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+57.4pt). The game was decided in South 3: Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Takaki Asai, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +38.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 2,700 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -5.8 | -1.3 | -4.8 | +11.9 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 5,200 | 20% | 24% | 22% | 34% | -4.2 | -10.7 | -3.7 | +18.6 |
| East 3 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 15% | 18% | 51% | -9.4 | -9.8 | +31.8 | -12.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 12% | 10% | 42% | 36% | -1.3 | +9.6 | -8.9 | +0.6 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 15% | 34% | 39% | +0.1 | +1.8 | -0.4 | -1.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 17% | 34% | 37% | -8.9 | -11.2 | -14.1 | +34.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Takaki Asai tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 7% | 16% | 72% | +20.2 | -8.0 | -3.4 | -8.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 6% | 16% | 64% | -5.3 | +1.1 | +2.6 | +1.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 7% | 17% | 68% | -1.2 | +6.4 | -1.9 | -3.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 10% | 10% | 17% | 63% | -6.7 | +48.5 | -39.0 | -2.8 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 1,500 from Arisa Date | 4% | 38% | 2% | 56% | +0.8 | +9.4 | +0.9 | -11.0 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Takaki Asai tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 52% | 4% | 40% | +46.9 | -26.7 | -8.8 | -11.4 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Takaki Asai | 42% | 23% | 2% | 32% | -34.7 | -0.1 | -4.0 | +38.8 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,300 from Arisa Date | 3% | 9% | 0% | 87% | -5.3 | +0.2 | +2.2 | +2.9 |