Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
3/3 Game 2
Kana Nakada finished 1st (+51.9pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Kana Nakada tsumo 12,000, which moved Kana Nakada's expected points by +34.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -3.6 | -2.5 | +7.7 | -1.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kana Nakada tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 24% | 31% | 24% | -11.4 | +34.5 | -12.4 | -10.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 5,200 from Kana Nakada | 14% | 50% | 21% | 16% | +1.6 | -18.6 | +17.8 | -0.9 |
| East 3 | Kana Nakada tsumo 6,400 | 16% | 33% | 34% | 17% | -4.4 | +21.6 | -12.4 | -4.7 |
| East 4 | Kana Nakada tsumo 1,500 | 12% | 54% | 20% | 14% | -3.3 | +7.7 | +0.6 | -5.1 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 64% | 19% | 8% | +6.3 | -0.6 | -1.7 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,700 | 11% | 64% | 18% | 7% | -7.3 | +0.1 | +9.9 | -2.8 |
| South 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 2,600 from Tomohiro Honda | 6% | 66% | 22% | 6% | +7.0 | +2.4 | -6.9 | -2.5 |
| South 3 | Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Kana Nakada | 7% | 73% | 16% | 5% | +40.3 | -27.1 | -9.8 | -3.5 |
| South 4 | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,900 from Takaharu Ooi | 46% | 33% | 14% | 7% | -18.5 | +9.2 | +1.7 | +7.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kana Nakada ron 2,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 25% | 50% | 14% | 11% | -0.8 | +25.5 | -11.8 | -12.9 |