Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
3/6 Game 2
Ishii Kazuma finished 1st (+73.4pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Ishii Kazuma ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato, which moved Ishii Kazuma's expected points by +33.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ishii Kazuma 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Ishii Kazuma Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 26% | 24% | 24% | +3.2 | -1.5 | -0.5 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Ishii Kazuma ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 28% | 24% | 25% | 23% | +33.8 | -1.4 | -3.4 | -29.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Ishii Kazuma tsumo 1,500 | 55% | 20% | 18% | 7% | +3.5 | -3.0 | -0.8 | +0.4 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Ishii Kazuma ron 12,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 59% | 17% | 17% | 7% | +25.6 | -25.1 | +1.2 | -1.6 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Draw | 81% | 4% | 10% | 5% | +1.4 | +0.9 | +1.6 | -3.8 |
| East 1, 5 honba | Draw | 82% | 4% | 10% | 4% | -2.1 | -1.7 | +5.3 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 6 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 81% | 4% | 12% | 3% | -7.9 | -13.3 | +25.8 | -4.6 |
| East 3 | Ishii Kazuma ron 1,300 from Nakabayashi Kei | 69% | 1% | 28% | 2% | +6.3 | +0.5 | -6.3 | -0.6 |
| East 4 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 6,000 | 79% | 1% | 18% | 2% | -3.0 | -4.5 | -3.2 | +10.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 78% | 1% | 18% | 3% | -2.3 | +2.7 | -1.7 | +1.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 75% | 1% | 19% | 4% | -8.5 | -1.8 | +21.1 | -10.8 |
| South 1 | Ishii Kazuma tsumo 12,000 | 59% | 1% | 39% | 1% | +23.6 | -5.7 | -14.8 | -3.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 87% | 0% | 13% | 0% | +1.3 | -1.5 | +2.2 | -2.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 87% | 0% | 13% | 0% | -0.1 | +18.6 | -0.7 | -17.8 |
| South 2 | Draw | 89% | 0% | 10% | 0% | -1.1 | +3.5 | -0.8 | -1.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 88% | 1% | 11% | 0% | -1.2 | +2.4 | -1.7 | +0.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Draw | 88% | 1% | 11% | 0% | -0.6 | +3.4 | -1.5 | -1.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 7,700 from Hagiwara Masato | 88% | 1% | 10% | 0% | -1.0 | +14.2 | -1.9 | -11.3 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 3,000 | 88% | 2% | 10% | 0% | -3.0 | +8.0 | -3.7 | -1.4 |
| South 2, 5 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 85% | 5% | 10% | 0% | -4.9 | -12.5 | +19.6 | -2.2 |
| South 3 | Hagiwara Masato ron 2,600 from Nakabayashi Kei | 77% | 0% | 23% | 0% | +7.0 | +0.2 | -9.9 | +2.7 |
| South 4 | Draw | 93% | 0% | 7% | 0% | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.8 | +2.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 3,900 from Hagiwara Masato | 93% | 0% | 7% | 0% | +2.3 | +5.3 | -2.0 | -5.6 |