Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
3/9 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 18,000 from Rio Tojyo, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +70.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Miura 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Tomohiro Miura Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Tomohiro Miura tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -16.5 | -7.9 | +31.1 | -6.8 |
| East 2 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 2,000 | 13% | 19% | 49% | 19% | +4.0 | -4.8 | +2.2 | -1.4 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,600 from Tomohiro Miura | 14% | 15% | 52% | 19% | +8.1 | +1.5 | -9.3 | -0.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 17% | 44% | 19% | -3.5 | -5.4 | +4.3 | +4.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Miura ron 3,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 17% | 13% | 48% | 22% | -0.2 | -12.7 | +14.2 | -1.3 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 16,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 14% | 6% | 64% | 16% | -4.7 | +43.9 | +2.5 | -41.7 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 7,800 | 7% | 25% | 66% | 2% | -6.3 | +25.2 | -14.0 | -4.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 3% | 54% | 41% | 2% | -1.3 | -10.2 | +6.1 | +5.4 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Tomohiro Miura | 3% | 43% | 53% | 2% | -3.4 | +14.8 | -21.0 | +9.5 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 75% | 19% | 5% | +2.6 | -3.8 | -0.6 | +1.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 3,900 | 3% | 68% | 23% | 6% | -11.0 | -2.2 | -4.8 | +18.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 18,000 from Rio Tojyo | 2% | 69% | 18% | 11% | -29.7 | -24.6 | -16.0 | +70.3 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 0% | 13% | 6% | 81% | +9.0 | -29.7 | +14.1 | +6.6 |