Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

3/9 Game 2

Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Setokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Tojyo Rio, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +71.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 4End● Setokuma Naoki● Tojyo Rio● Sasaki Hisato● Miura Tomohiro0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Setokuma● Tojyo● Sasaki● Miura
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultTojyo Rio
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Miura Tomohiro
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Tojyo Rio
Expected pt change
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
Miura Tomohiro
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
East 1Miura Tomohiro tsumo 12,00024%25%26%25%-15.4-10.6+31.9-6.0
East 2Tojyo Rio tsumo 2,00014%17%50%20%+5.4-2.8-0.6-2.0
East 3Tojyo Rio ron 2,600 from Miura Tomohiro16%15%51%19%+6.3+0.3-6.2-0.5
East 4Draw20%16%45%19%-3.7-4.2+3.2+4.7
East 4, 1 honbaMiura Tomohiro ron 3,900 from Sasaki Hisato17%13%49%21%-0.8-12.5+16.2-2.9
South 1Sasaki Hisato ron 16,000 from Setokuma Naoki14%7%66%14%-3.6+42.4+1.3-40.1
South 2Sasaki Hisato tsumo 7,8008%23%67%2%-7.4+26.8-14.5-4.9
South 2, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Sasaki Hisato4%55%40%1%+0.3-10.9+4.8+5.8
South 3Setokuma Naoki ron 5,200 from Miura Tomohiro4%43%51%3%-4.5+15.1-19.1+8.6
South 4Draw1%75%20%5%+2.7-4.0-0.6+1.9
South 4, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki tsumo 3,9003%67%25%6%-11.2-1.8-3.8+16.8
South 4, 2 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Tojyo Rio3%68%20%9%-29.9-24.4-17.2+71.5
South 4, 3 honbaTojyo Rio ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato0%13%6%81%+9.0-30.0+14.0+6.9

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)