Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
3/10 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+97.8pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +37.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 18,000 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +43.3 | -14.9 | -14.7 | -13.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 2,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 59% | 14% | 13% | 14% | +6.1 | -7.3 | +2.2 | -1.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 67% | 9% | 12% | 12% | -12.8 | +28.6 | -8.5 | -7.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 54% | 24% | 10% | 12% | -3.8 | +7.0 | -1.5 | -1.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 50% | 30% | 10% | 10% | -6.0 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +4.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 44% | 33% | 11% | 12% | -14.1 | +37.5 | -12.2 | -11.2 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 66% | 4% | 6% | -11.8 | +22.7 | -4.7 | -6.2 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 8% | 88% | 2% | 2% | +0.1 | -0.1 | -10.1 | +10.0 |
| East 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,200 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 7% | 89% | 1% | 3% | +1.4 | -0.2 | -10.9 | +9.7 |
| East 4 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 2,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 7% | 89% | 0% | 4% | +3.3 | +2.7 | +0.3 | -6.3 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000 | 6% | 93% | 0% | 1% | -3.9 | +6.1 | -1.3 | -0.9 |
| South 2 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 7,800 | 1% | 98% | 0% | 1% | -4.1 | +8.9 | -2.6 | -2.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | -3.1 | +12.8 | -3.9 | -5.7 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +1.4 | -0.7 | -0.8 | +0.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +0.3 | -4.0 | +6.2 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +8.8 | -0.5 | -7.9 | -0.4 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -1.3 | -0.7 | -0.9 | +3.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -1.3 | -0.9 | -1.0 | +3.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 1,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +4.5 | 0.0 | -1.2 | -3.2 |