Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
3/16 Game 2
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+53.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +33.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 25% | 23% | 25% | -5.6 | +6.0 | -0.1 | -0.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 23% | 29% | 24% | 25% | -1.8 | -1.7 | -8.0 | +11.6 |
| East 3 | Takaharu Ooi ron 5,800 from Akina Mizuhara | 22% | 27% | 18% | 34% | -1.6 | -0.5 | +18.8 | -16.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 2,000 | 19% | 27% | 31% | 22% | -1.3 | +10.4 | -7.1 | -2.0 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 1,600 from Takaharu Ooi | 19% | 34% | 25% | 22% | +3.9 | -0.3 | -2.4 | -1.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 36% | 23% | 19% | +7.4 | -3.8 | +1.2 | -4.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,000 from Aki Nikaido | 27% | 32% | 25% | 17% | -7.3 | -0.4 | +1.9 | +5.8 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 5,200 from Akina Mizuhara | 21% | 32% | 26% | 21% | +23.5 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -19.8 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 42% | 26% | 22% | 10% | +2.9 | +0.3 | -5.7 | +2.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 2,100 | 43% | 26% | 18% | 13% | -2.6 | -2.5 | -5.1 | +10.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 44% | 24% | 15% | 18% | +33.3 | -43.7 | +14.2 | -3.7 |