Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
3/17 Game 2
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+117.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 6 honba: Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +24.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kazuma Ishii 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kazuma Ishii Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,500 from Hiroshi Daigo | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +1.5 | +1.1 | +0.6 | -3.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 26% | 25% | 22% | +1.6 | -3.8 | -0.6 | +2.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,900 from Takaharu Ooi | 28% | 23% | 25% | 24% | +15.7 | -3.8 | -13.5 | +1.7 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Kazuma Ishii ron 2,600 from Hiroshi Daigo | 40% | 20% | 16% | 24% | +1.5 | +11.3 | -1.2 | -11.6 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Kazuma Ishii | 41% | 26% | 15% | 17% | +5.8 | -6.5 | -2.0 | +2.8 |
| East 3 | Takaharu Ooi ron 1,500 from Sayaka Okada | 47% | 21% | 14% | 19% | -2.4 | -1.2 | +5.9 | -2.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 8,000 | 45% | 20% | 17% | 17% | -6.0 | -6.1 | -15.0 | +27.1 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 17% | 9% | 37% | +9.3 | -3.1 | -1.0 | -5.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Takaharu Ooi | 48% | 14% | 9% | 30% | +12.8 | -1.0 | -11.6 | -0.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 61% | 10% | 4% | 25% | +4.0 | +3.9 | -1.0 | -6.8 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 67% | 11% | 3% | 18% | +4.4 | -1.4 | -1.0 | -2.0 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 5,800 from Hiroshi Daigo | 71% | 10% | 4% | 16% | +16.0 | +1.5 | +0.2 | -17.8 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 87% | 6% | 2% | 4% | +2.9 | -1.4 | -0.5 | -1.0 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000 | 90% | 5% | 2% | 4% | +24.4 | -9.3 | -7.9 | -7.2 |
| South 1, 7 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | +14.5 | +2.6 | -20.2 | +3.2 |
| South 1, 8 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 7,800 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +10.2 | -3.1 | -3.6 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 9 honba | Exhaustive draw | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +1.6 | +2.5 | -1.4 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 10 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 3,900 from Sayaka Okada | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -8.0 | -5.7 | -1.1 | +14.8 |
| South 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 2,000 from Kazuma Ishii | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +0.6 | -3.8 | +1.9 | +1.3 |
| South 3 | Kazuma Ishii ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -7.6 | +18.4 | -2.4 | -8.4 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Kazuma Ishii | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +13.0 | -26.0 | -0.7 | +13.8 |