Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

3/19 Game 1

Shimoishi Geki finished 1st (+63.8pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Shimoishi Geki ron 12,000 from Daigo Hiroshi, which moved Shimoishi Geki's expected points by +45.4.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Date Arisa 1st-place chance	Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance	Shimoishi Geki 1st-place chance	Daigo Hiroshi 1st-place chance	Date Arisa Expected pt change	Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change	Shimoishi Geki Expected pt change	Daigo Hiroshi Expected pt change
East 1	Draw	26%	23%	26%	25%	+3.8	-1.7	-1.3	-0.9
East 1, 1 honba	Date Arisa ron 2,400 from Daigo Hiroshi	29%	22%	24%	24%	+11.3	-0.4	-2.7	-8.1
East 1, 2 honba	Shimoishi Geki ron 2,000 from Date Arisa	37%	22%	22%	19%	-9.5	+1.3	+9.2	-1.0
East 2	Shimoishi Geki ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji	29%	23%	29%	19%	-3.6	-22.3	+23.5	+2.4
East 3	Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000	24%	10%	48%	19%	-2.8	+21.2	-12.5	-6.0
East 4	Daigo Hiroshi tsumo 18,000	25%	22%	36%	17%	-20.0	-16.0	-17.9	+53.9
East 4, 1 honba	Draw	10%	11%	18%	60%	+8.4	-4.8	-1.5	-2.1
South 1, 2 honba	Katsumata Kenji ron 2,000 from Daigo Hiroshi	14%	8%	18%	60%	-3.7	+6.2	+0.7	-3.2
South 2	Daigo Hiroshi ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji	11%	11%	19%	59%	+0.2	-17.0	+1.4	+15.4
South 3	Shimoishi Geki ron 2,000 from Date Arisa	5%	2%	14%	79%	-9.5	+2.2	+7.4	-0.1
South 3, 1 honba	Shimoishi Geki ron 12,000 from Daigo Hiroshi	3%	2%	16%	79%	+0.3	-0.8	+45.4	-44.9
South 3, 2 honba	Daigo Hiroshi ron 2,000 from Date Arisa	3%	1%	82%	15%	-11.6	+1.9	+1.0	+8.7
South 4	Shimoishi Geki ron 3,900 from Daigo Hiroshi	0%	0%	85%	15%	-9.4	+8.1	+10.7	-9.4

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)