Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

3/20 Game 1

Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+55.8pt). The game was decided in East 2, 3 honba: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +33.8.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Futoshi Watanabe● Namba Shibukawa● Tomohiro Honda● Daisuke Suzuki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Futoshi● Namba● Tomohiro● Daisuke
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultNamba Shibukawa
1st-place chance
Tomohiro Honda
1st-place chance
Futoshi Watanabe
1st-place chance
Daisuke Suzuki
1st-place chance
Namba Shibukawa
Expected pt change
Tomohiro Honda
Expected pt change
Futoshi Watanabe
Expected pt change
Daisuke Suzuki
Expected pt change
East 1Tomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa25%25%24%27%-6.3+4.2+1.6+0.5
East 2Exhaustive draw19%28%26%27%+1.2+6.6-4.4-3.4
East 2, 1 honbaTomohiro Honda tsumo 12,00021%33%22%25%-14.0+35.6-9.7-11.9
East 2, 2 honbaTomohiro Honda tsumo 3,0009%65%13%13%-2.7+6.3-3.2-0.4
East 2, 3 honbaFutoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,0007%71%11%11%-5.6-17.7+33.8-10.5
East 3Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,0007%52%31%10%-2.8+8.1-4.2-1.1
East 4Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 7,8005%61%25%9%-5.9-7.3-6.9+20.1
East 4, 1 honbaTomohiro Honda tsumo 2,7006%54%22%18%-3.2+12.3-2.2-6.9
South 1Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe4%70%17%10%+3.5+0.5-3.8-0.1
South 1, 1 honbaTomohiro Honda tsumo 1,1003%71%16%10%-4.6+5.0-0.8+0.4
South 2Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 8,0001%79%12%9%-6.3-7.7-10.4+24.3
South 3Futoshi Watanabe ron 7,700 from Tomohiro Honda1%71%8%20%-1.4-29.5+27.3+3.5
South 3, 1 honbaExhaustive draw1%34%31%34%+2.8-5.4+5.7-3.1
South 3, 2 honbaFutoshi Watanabe ron 1,500 from Namba Shibukawa2%28%39%32%-4.3-3.1+13.2-5.8
South 3, 3 honbaTomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Futoshi Watanabe1%22%55%23%-1.6+12.3-5.7-5.0
South 4Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,600 from Tomohiro Honda0%32%51%18%-0.4-11.1+26.9-15.5

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)