Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
3/20 Game 1
Watanabe Futoshi finished 1st (+55.8pt). The game was decided in East 2, 3 honba: Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000, which moved Watanabe Futoshi's expected points by +32.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Suzuki Daisuke 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Suzuki Daisuke Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Honda Tomohiro ron 1,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -7.2 | +4.7 | +0.6 | +1.8 |
| East 2 | Draw | 20% | 29% | 26% | 26% | -2.4 | +4.4 | -2.3 | +0.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 31% | 24% | 26% | -10.5 | +39.6 | -14.2 | -14.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 3,000 | 9% | 67% | 11% | 13% | -3.1 | +5.4 | -2.1 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 71% | 10% | 12% | -6.9 | -16.3 | +32.1 | -8.8 |
| East 3 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 2,000 | 7% | 55% | 29% | 9% | -2.2 | +6.2 | -2.4 | -1.6 |
| East 4 | Suzuki Daisuke tsumo 7,800 | 5% | 63% | 24% | 9% | -5.9 | -6.6 | -6.2 | +18.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 2,700 | 6% | 56% | 22% | 17% | -2.3 | +10.0 | -2.2 | -5.5 |
| South 1 | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 3% | 69% | 17% | 10% | +5.3 | +0.9 | -5.6 | -0.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 1,100 | 6% | 70% | 14% | 10% | -7.3 | +6.5 | +0.1 | +0.6 |
| South 2 | Suzuki Daisuke tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 80% | 11% | 8% | -5.7 | -8.8 | -10.2 | +24.7 |
| South 3 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 7,700 from Honda Tomohiro | 0% | 71% | 8% | 21% | -0.9 | -28.7 | +27.0 | +2.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 1% | 35% | 30% | 34% | +1.2 | -4.8 | +7.6 | -3.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 1,500 from Shibukawa Namba | 2% | 29% | 39% | 30% | -3.8 | -5.6 | +13.6 | -4.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 1,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 0% | 20% | 56% | 24% | -1.2 | +15.0 | -6.9 | -6.9 |
| South 4 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 2,600 from Honda Tomohiro | 0% | 33% | 50% | 17% | -0.2 | -12.3 | +27.0 | -14.5 |