Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
3/20 Game 1
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+55.8pt). The game was decided in East 2, 3 honba: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +33.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 25% | 25% | 24% | 27% | -6.3 | +4.2 | +1.6 | +0.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 28% | 26% | 27% | +1.2 | +6.6 | -4.4 | -3.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 33% | 22% | 25% | -14.0 | +35.6 | -9.7 | -11.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 3,000 | 9% | 65% | 13% | 13% | -2.7 | +6.3 | -3.2 | -0.4 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 71% | 11% | 11% | -5.6 | -17.7 | +33.8 | -10.5 |
| East 3 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,000 | 7% | 52% | 31% | 10% | -2.8 | +8.1 | -4.2 | -1.1 |
| East 4 | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 7,800 | 5% | 61% | 25% | 9% | -5.9 | -7.3 | -6.9 | +20.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,700 | 6% | 54% | 22% | 18% | -3.2 | +12.3 | -2.2 | -6.9 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 4% | 70% | 17% | 10% | +3.5 | +0.5 | -3.8 | -0.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 1,100 | 3% | 71% | 16% | 10% | -4.6 | +5.0 | -0.8 | +0.4 |
| South 2 | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 79% | 12% | 9% | -6.3 | -7.7 | -10.4 | +24.3 |
| South 3 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 7,700 from Tomohiro Honda | 1% | 71% | 8% | 20% | -1.4 | -29.5 | +27.3 | +3.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 34% | 31% | 34% | +2.8 | -5.4 | +5.7 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,500 from Namba Shibukawa | 2% | 28% | 39% | 32% | -4.3 | -3.1 | +13.2 | -5.8 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 1% | 22% | 55% | 23% | -1.6 | +12.3 | -5.7 | -5.0 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,600 from Tomohiro Honda | 0% | 32% | 51% | 18% | -0.4 | -11.1 | +26.9 | -15.5 |