Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

3/20 Game 2

Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+69.0pt). The game was decided in East 3: Sonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +34.3.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Sonoda Ken● Shimoishi Geki● Hori Shingo● Setokuma Naoki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Sonoda● Shimoishi● Hori● Setokuma
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultShimoishi Geki
1st-place chance
Sonoda Ken
1st-place chance
Hori Shingo
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Shimoishi Geki
Expected pt change
Sonoda Ken
Expected pt change
Hori Shingo
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
East 1Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,00026%26%24%24%-13.6+16.8-1.8-1.5
East 2Hori Shingo ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki16%38%23%23%+1.8+1.4+9.2-12.4
East 3Sonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo17%40%27%16%-1.7+34.3-33.2+0.5
East 4Draw9%75%5%11%-3.9+3.2+4.9-4.1
South 1, 1 honbaHori Shingo tsumo 12,0007%80%6%7%-19.1-7.9+38.4-11.4
South 2Sonoda Ken ron 2,900 from Setokuma Naoki2%71%23%4%+2.4+8.3-2.4-8.3
South 2, 1 honbaDraw1%80%16%2%+4.6+0.4-1.3-3.7
South 3, 2 honbaSonoda Ken ron 1,600 from Setokuma Naoki1%84%14%2%+1.7+9.8-5.6-5.9
South 4Shimoishi Geki ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo0%98%2%1%+30.0+1.4-25.8-5.6

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)