Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
3/23 Game 1
Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+74.0pt). The game was decided in East 4, 3 honba: Kosuke Nagai ron 12,000 from Genta Takeuchi, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +39.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 2,000 | 26% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -2.7 | -2.3 | +4.5 | +0.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 22% | 29% | 26% | +2.1 | +3.8 | -6.7 | +0.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 3,900 from Sayaka Okada | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -0.7 | +10.1 | -12.3 | +2.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 23% | 32% | 17% | 28% | -2.2 | +30.9 | -25.5 | -3.2 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 3,900 from Sayaka Okada | 16% | 57% | 6% | 21% | +11.6 | -1.5 | -10.8 | +0.7 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 55% | 3% | 20% | -2.4 | -0.9 | +6.6 | -3.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 6,000 | 22% | 55% | 5% | 18% | -2.7 | -2.5 | +9.9 | -4.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 55% | 6% | 17% | -0.7 | -0.6 | -3.4 | +4.6 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 12,000 from Genta Takeuchi | 21% | 54% | 4% | 21% | -36.5 | -3.4 | +0.6 | +39.2 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 12,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 4% | 44% | 3% | 50% | +4.2 | -35.7 | +1.1 | +30.3 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 5,800 from Genta Takeuchi | 3% | 7% | 2% | 87% | -14.2 | +3.3 | +1.7 | +9.3 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 7% | 1% | 91% | -4.3 | -5.5 | +13.5 | -3.7 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 5,200 | 1% | 5% | 2% | 92% | -9.8 | -3.5 | +14.2 | -0.9 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 0% | 3% | 3% | 94% | -0.2 | -4.1 | +3.0 | +1.3 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,900 from Kosuke Nagai | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% | -0.6 | -1.8 | +6.6 | -4.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 1% | 5% | 94% | +15.8 | +5.7 | -24.7 | +3.2 |
| South 4 | Kosuke Nagai ron 2,000 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +1.6 | +2.5 | -5.5 | +1.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +41.2 | -41.7 | +1.2 | -0.8 |