Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
9/16 Game 1
Shota Akutsu finished 1st (+76.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Shota Akutsu tsumo 24,000, which moved Shota Akutsu's expected points by +48.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Shota Akutsu 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Shota Akutsu Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,400 from Aki Nikaido | 27% | 26% | 22% | 26% | +8.0 | -1.8 | +3.9 | -10.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 3,200 | 32% | 24% | 26% | 19% | -5.7 | -6.7 | +14.2 | -1.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 19% | 35% | 19% | +3.8 | +6.1 | -4.6 | -5.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Shota Akutsu ron 9,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 29% | 24% | 32% | 15% | -26.5 | +27.4 | 0.0 | -0.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Shota Akutsu tsumo 24,000 | 12% | 43% | 31% | 14% | -14.0 | +48.5 | -20.0 | -14.4 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 88% | 7% | 3% | -6.4 | -7.5 | -5.3 | +19.3 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 83% | 7% | 8% | -2.4 | -1.5 | +3.5 | +0.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 1,500 | 3% | 81% | 8% | 8% | -2.5 | -2.6 | +6.4 | -1.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 79% | 11% | 8% | -3.1 | -0.2 | +2.1 | +1.2 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Shota Akutsu ron 1,300 from Aki Nikaido | 1% | 80% | 12% | 7% | +0.4 | +3.6 | -3.3 | -0.7 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 9,600 | 2% | 84% | 7% | 8% | -6.3 | -5.6 | -7.7 | +19.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 5,200 | 1% | 78% | 6% | 15% | -3.4 | +1.8 | +13.3 | -11.7 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 7,800 | 1% | 83% | 9% | 7% | +13.2 | -4.2 | -4.9 | -4.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shota Akutsu ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 2% | 80% | 10% | 8% | -20.5 | +18.3 | -0.1 | +2.3 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,200 from Aki Nikaido | 0% | 95% | 2% | 3% | -1.7 | -0.6 | +10.9 | -8.6 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 95% | 4% | 1% | +8.5 | -0.3 | -6.9 | -1.4 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2% | -1.2 | +0.8 | +7.8 | -7.4 |