Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
9/16 Game 1
Akutsu Shota finished 1st (+76.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Akutsu Shota tsumo 24,000, which moved Akutsu Shota's expected points by +48.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Akutsu Shota 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Akutsu Shota Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,400 from Nikaido Aki | 26% | 26% | 23% | 25% | +9.6 | -3.0 | +1.8 | -8.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 3,200 | 33% | 22% | 25% | 20% | -8.0 | -4.6 | +14.3 | -1.6 |
| East 2 | Draw | 26% | 20% | 35% | 20% | +4.9 | +4.7 | -4.5 | -5.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Akutsu Shota ron 9,600 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 28% | 22% | 32% | 17% | -26.8 | +27.8 | +0.4 | -1.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Akutsu Shota tsumo 24,000 | 12% | 43% | 31% | 14% | -14.8 | +48.9 | -19.8 | -14.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 87% | 7% | 4% | -5.4 | -6.1 | -7.6 | +19.1 |
| East 3 | Draw | 2% | 84% | 6% | 8% | -3.1 | -2.6 | +5.9 | -0.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 1,500 | 2% | 81% | 9% | 8% | -2.1 | -0.2 | +4.3 | -2.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 2% | 82% | 10% | 7% | -3.4 | -4.5 | +4.9 | +3.0 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Akutsu Shota ron 1,300 from Nikaido Aki | 2% | 76% | 12% | 10% | +0.5 | +7.0 | -2.1 | -5.3 |
| East 4 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 9,600 | 2% | 85% | 8% | 6% | -5.8 | -7.9 | -8.5 | +22.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 5,200 | 1% | 77% | 6% | 15% | -3.7 | +0.4 | +12.0 | -8.7 |
| South 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 7,800 | 1% | 78% | 10% | 10% | +12.3 | -1.9 | -4.1 | -6.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Akutsu Shota ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 2% | 80% | 10% | 8% | -20.1 | +18.6 | -0.4 | +1.9 |
| South 2 | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,200 from Nikaido Aki | 0% | 94% | 4% | 2% | -1.4 | -0.4 | +9.8 | -8.0 |
| South 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 95% | 4% | 1% | +8.8 | +0.1 | -5.9 | -3.1 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -1.5 | +0.2 | +6.9 | -5.6 |