Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

9/16 Game 1

Shota Akutsu finished 1st (+76.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Shota Akutsu tsumo 24,000, which moved Shota Akutsu's expected points by +48.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3East 4End● Shota Akutsu● Yoshihiro Matsumoto● Hisato Sasaki● Aki Nikaido0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3End● Shota● Yoshihiro● Hisato● Aki
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultYoshihiro Matsumoto
1st-place chance
Shota Akutsu
1st-place chance
Hisato Sasaki
1st-place chance
Aki Nikaido
1st-place chance
Yoshihiro Matsumoto
Expected pt change
Shota Akutsu
Expected pt change
Hisato Sasaki
Expected pt change
Aki Nikaido
Expected pt change
East 1Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,400 from Aki Nikaido27%26%22%26%+8.0-1.8+3.9-10.0
East 1, 1 honbaHisato Sasaki tsumo 3,20032%24%26%19%-5.7-6.7+14.2-1.8
East 2Exhaustive draw26%19%35%19%+3.8+6.1-4.6-5.3
East 2, 1 honbaShota Akutsu ron 9,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto29%24%32%15%-26.5+27.40.0-0.8
East 2, 2 honbaShota Akutsu tsumo 24,00012%43%31%14%-14.0+48.5-20.0-14.4
East 2, 3 honbaAki Nikaido tsumo 8,0002%88%7%3%-6.4-7.5-5.3+19.3
East 3Exhaustive draw3%83%7%8%-2.4-1.5+3.5+0.4
East 3, 1 honbaHisato Sasaki tsumo 1,5003%81%8%8%-2.5-2.6+6.4-1.2
East 3, 2 honbaExhaustive draw2%79%11%8%-3.1-0.2+2.1+1.2
East 3, 3 honbaShota Akutsu ron 1,300 from Aki Nikaido1%80%12%7%+0.4+3.6-3.3-0.7
East 4Aki Nikaido tsumo 9,6002%84%7%8%-6.3-5.6-7.7+19.6
East 4, 1 honbaHisato Sasaki tsumo 5,2001%78%6%15%-3.4+1.8+13.3-11.7
South 1Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 7,8001%83%9%7%+13.2-4.2-4.9-4.1
South 1, 1 honbaShota Akutsu ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto2%80%10%8%-20.5+18.3-0.1+2.3
South 2Hisato Sasaki ron 3,200 from Aki Nikaido0%95%2%3%-1.7-0.6+10.9-8.6
South 3Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,0000%95%4%1%+8.5-0.3-6.9-1.4
South 4Hisato Sasaki tsumo 2,0000%98%0%2%-1.2+0.8+7.8-7.4

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)