Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
9/18 Game 1
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+58.5pt). The game was decided in South 1: Masato Hagiwara tsumo 24,000, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +63.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 23% | 27% | 25% | -4.8 | +3.7 | +2.1 | -1.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 2,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 23% | 25% | 27% | 25% | -1.1 | 0.0 | -8.2 | +9.3 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 4,000 | 22% | 25% | 22% | 31% | +11.2 | -4.6 | -6.7 | +0.1 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 22% | 17% | 32% | -6.9 | +2.9 | +1.3 | +2.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 17% | 33% | +4.9 | -3.6 | -3.1 | +1.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 18,000 | 28% | 21% | 16% | 35% | -20.9 | -15.1 | -14.6 | +50.6 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 5,200 | 6% | 5% | 4% | 85% | -7.6 | -5.7 | +19.3 | -6.0 |
| South 1 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 24,000 | 5% | 5% | 9% | 81% | +63.0 | -16.3 | -21.3 | -25.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 52% | 3% | 4% | 41% | -4.3 | +1.8 | -2.3 | +4.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,000 from Rio Tojyo | 46% | 3% | 3% | 47% | +16.5 | -5.1 | -0.9 | -10.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 72% | 0% | 2% | 26% | -2.3 | +0.2 | +3.5 | -1.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 12,000 from Rio Tojyo | 71% | 0% | 3% | 27% | +8.9 | +42.4 | -15.2 | -36.1 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 92% | 2% | 0% | 7% | -1.8 | -5.9 | -1.8 | +9.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 90% | 1% | 0% | 9% | +1.9 | +13.7 | -1.6 | -14.1 |