Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
9/19 Game 1
Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+62.8pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +36.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Megumu Aikawa 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Megumu Aikawa Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Megumu Aikawa | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +30.0 | -30.0 | -0.3 | +0.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,800 from Megumu Aikawa | 47% | 9% | 21% | 23% | +11.8 | -10.0 | -0.8 | -0.9 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Megumu Aikawa ron 6,400 from Kosuke Nagai | 57% | 5% | 18% | 19% | +0.5 | +10.7 | -13.7 | +2.5 |
| East 2 | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 12,000 | 60% | 8% | 12% | 20% | -8.6 | +29.8 | -9.6 | -11.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 1,100 | 53% | 22% | 10% | 15% | +3.4 | -5.1 | -3.2 | +4.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 17% | 9% | 19% | -1.8 | -0.9 | +4.2 | -1.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000 | 56% | 17% | 10% | 18% | -13.5 | -11.1 | +36.6 | -12.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 41% | 14% | 32% | 13% | +6.6 | +5.7 | -8.5 | -3.8 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,000 | 48% | 16% | 24% | 12% | -6.4 | -7.3 | +27.1 | -13.4 |
| South 1 | Kosuke Nagai ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 37% | 10% | 47% | 5% | -6.3 | -1.0 | +22.2 | -14.9 |
| South 2 | Megumu Aikawa ron 4,800 from Takaharu Ooi | 20% | 5% | 74% | 2% | -3.1 | +10.7 | -0.1 | -7.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 5,200 | 17% | 8% | 74% | 1% | -4.6 | -8.5 | +14.8 | -1.7 |
| South 3 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 1% | 94% | 0% | -2.3 | -6.9 | -7.9 | +17.1 |
| South 4 | Megumu Aikawa ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 4% | 0% | 94% | 2% | -23.1 | +26.9 | +2.9 | -6.7 |