Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
9/19 Game 1
Nagai Kosuke finished 1st (+62.8pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000, which moved Nagai Kosuke's expected points by +35.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Aikawa Megumu 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Aikawa Megumu Expected pt change | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Aikawa Megumu | 25% | 24% | 26% | 24% | +28.2 | -26.4 | -0.6 | -1.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,800 from Aikawa Megumu | 47% | 11% | 22% | 21% | +14.9 | -13.0 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Aikawa Megumu ron 6,400 from Nagai Kosuke | 59% | 5% | 18% | 18% | +0.9 | +12.7 | -16.0 | +2.3 |
| East 2 | Aikawa Megumu tsumo 12,000 | 62% | 8% | 11% | 19% | -10.4 | +28.6 | -7.7 | -10.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 1,100 | 52% | 22% | 10% | 16% | +1.9 | -2.5 | -3.6 | +4.2 |
| East 3 | Draw | 55% | 18% | 9% | 18% | -1.7 | -2.2 | +5.1 | -1.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000 | 53% | 18% | 10% | 19% | -10.1 | -12.8 | +35.2 | -12.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 43% | 13% | 31% | 14% | +4.6 | +3.9 | -5.7 | -2.9 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 8,000 | 49% | 15% | 24% | 12% | -6.9 | -5.5 | +26.6 | -14.3 |
| South 1 | Nagai Kosuke ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 36% | 11% | 49% | 5% | -5.9 | +0.4 | +20.7 | -15.2 |
| South 2 | Aikawa Megumu ron 4,800 from Ooi Takaharu | 20% | 5% | 74% | 1% | -1.8 | +8.9 | -1.1 | -6.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 5,200 | 19% | 9% | 71% | 1% | -4.7 | -8.3 | +15.9 | -2.9 |
| South 3 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 1% | 94% | 0% | -3.1 | -6.1 | -8.7 | +17.9 |
| South 4 | Aikawa Megumu ron 5,200 from Setokuma Naoki | 5% | 0% | 93% | 3% | -23.1 | +26.5 | +3.9 | -7.3 |