Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
9/23 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+63.5pt). The game was decided in South 1: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +28.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takeuchi Genta 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Nakada Kana 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Takeuchi Genta Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Nakada Kana Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,600 from Takeuchi Genta | 25% | 24% | 26% | 26% | -8.9 | +0.9 | -3.5 | +11.6 |
| East 2 | Takeuchi Genta ron 1,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 19% | 25% | 23% | 33% | +5.7 | -5.4 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| East 3 | Draw | 23% | 21% | 23% | 33% | -4.8 | -1.4 | -2.7 | +8.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 4,000 | 20% | 20% | 20% | 40% | -5.5 | +17.7 | -3.7 | -8.4 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 33% | 18% | 33% | -15.4 | -7.1 | -5.9 | +28.4 |
| South 2 | Nakada Kana tsumo 4,000 | 4% | 21% | 12% | 63% | -4.3 | -13.7 | +14.6 | +3.5 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Takeuchi Genta | 3% | 10% | 17% | 70% | -17.7 | -1.0 | -2.1 | +20.8 |
| South 4 | Nakada Kana ron 1,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 1% | 1% | 98% | -2.8 | -6.8 | +9.9 | -0.2 |