Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

9/25 Game 1

Kazuma Ishii finished 1st (+54.8pt). The game was decided in East 1: Kazuma Ishii ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa, which moved Kazuma Ishii's expected points by +24.3.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Kazuma Ishii● Maki Asami● Kazunori Takizawa● Saki Kurosawa0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Kazuma● Maki● Kazunori● Saki
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMaki Asami
1st-place chance
Kazuma Ishii
1st-place chance
Kazunori Takizawa
1st-place chance
Saki Kurosawa
1st-place chance
Maki Asami
Expected pt change
Kazuma Ishii
Expected pt change
Kazunori Takizawa
Expected pt change
Saki Kurosawa
Expected pt change
East 1Kazuma Ishii ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa25%26%24%25%-0.7+24.3-22.0-1.6
East 2Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 2,00020%44%12%24%-0.8-4.0+4.2+0.6
East 3Kazuma Ishii tsumo 2,00022%39%14%25%-1.1+9.8-4.9-3.7
East 4Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 4,00019%50%10%21%-2.7-0.9+16.3-12.7
South 1Saki Kurosawa ron 5,200 from Kazunori Takizawa19%50%17%14%-3.5+1.9-17.0+18.6
South 2Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,000 from Maki Asami14%53%10%23%-10.9+1.7+9.1+0.2
South 3Exhaustive draw8%58%14%21%+5.8-3.6+2.4-4.6
South 3, 1 honbaKazuma Ishii tsumo 4,00012%53%15%21%-4.9+20.2-12.5-2.8
South 4Maki Asami ron 2,000 from Kazuma Ishii2%84%2%12%+1.7+5.3-14.4+7.3

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)