Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

9/26 Game 2

Yu Suzuki finished 1st (+111.5pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Yu Suzuki ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada, which moved Yu Suzuki's expected points by +34.4.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Yu Suzuki● Sayaka Okada● Taro Suzuki● Yoshihiro Matsumoto0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Yu● Sayaka● Taro● Yoshihiro
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSayaka Okada
1st-place chance
Taro Suzuki
1st-place chance
Yu Suzuki
1st-place chance
Yoshihiro Matsumoto
1st-place chance
Sayaka Okada
Expected pt change
Taro Suzuki
Expected pt change
Yu Suzuki
Expected pt change
Yoshihiro Matsumoto
Expected pt change
East 1Yu Suzuki ron 5,200 from Sayaka Okada25%26%24%25%-14.9-0.3+15.3-0.1
East 2Exhaustive draw16%24%35%25%+2.9-4.0+3.8-2.7
East 3, 1 honbaYu Suzuki ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada16%21%39%24%-29.9-1.2+34.4-3.3
East 3, 2 honbaYu Suzuki ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto3%12%69%15%+2.1-1.6+7.7-8.1
East 3, 3 honbaYu Suzuki tsumo 6,0003%9%79%9%-5.8-4.8+12.0-1.3
East 3, 4 honbaTaro Suzuki tsumo 4,0002%5%88%6%-3.9+12.3-4.7-3.7
East 4Yu Suzuki tsumo 4,0001%9%85%5%-2.7-0.4+9.2-6.1
South 1Exhaustive draw1%4%93%2%-4.4+4.8+0.1-0.5
South 2, 1 honbaYu Suzuki ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki0%4%94%2%-2.3-13.5+12.2+3.5
South 3Yu Suzuki tsumo 3,0000%0%99%1%-0.5-0.1+3.9-3.4
South 3, 1 honbaYu Suzuki tsumo 18,0000%0%100%0%-5.1-6.5+19.5-7.8
South 3, 2 honbaYoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 2,0000%0%100%0%-4.2+1.5-1.7+4.4
South 4Yu Suzuki ron 1,000 from Taro Suzuki0%0%100%0%-0.7+4.4+1.3-5.0

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)