Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
9/30 Game 1
Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+59.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kosuke Nagai tsumo 7,800, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +35.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from HIRO Shibata | 27% | 25% | 23% | 25% | -3.6 | -21.2 | +22.8 | +1.9 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,600 from HIRO Shibata | 20% | 14% | 41% | 25% | -0.4 | -8.8 | +9.0 | +0.2 |
| East 3 | HIRO Shibata tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 8% | 48% | 24% | -6.6 | +20.5 | -8.7 | -5.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 17% | 42% | 24% | -3.2 | -1.9 | +9.8 | -4.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 13% | 16% | 54% | 17% | -3.2 | -6.1 | -11.7 | +20.9 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 13% | 41% | 34% | -1.7 | +2.0 | +0.4 | -0.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 8,000 from HIRO Shibata | 12% | 15% | 41% | 32% | -1.5 | -27.8 | -5.3 | +34.6 |
| South 3 | Namba Shibukawa ron 5,800 from Kosuke Nagai | 4% | 1% | 22% | 74% | -0.4 | -0.1 | +26.3 | -25.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | HIRO Shibata tsumo 1,100 | 4% | 1% | 64% | 31% | -2.6 | +3.4 | +1.4 | -2.2 |
| South 4 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 7,800 | 2% | 0% | 73% | 25% | -5.9 | -2.8 | -27.1 | +35.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,000 from HIRO Shibata | 1% | 0% | 12% | 87% | +5.4 | -6.2 | -3.3 | +4.1 |