Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
9/30 Game 1
Nagai Kosuke finished 1st (+59.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Nagai Kosuke tsumo 7,800, which moved Nagai Kosuke's expected points by +36.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from HIRO Shibata | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | -5.5 | -16.5 | +21.8 | +0.1 |
| East 2 | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,600 from HIRO Shibata | 20% | 15% | 39% | 26% | -0.4 | -10.6 | +11.1 | -0.1 |
| East 3 | HIRO Shibata tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 7% | 50% | 24% | -4.0 | +20.6 | -11.3 | -5.2 |
| East 4 | Draw | 18% | 18% | 41% | 23% | -4.2 | -1.3 | +10.5 | -5.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke ron 3,900 from Shibukawa Namba | 15% | 16% | 52% | 17% | -2.3 | -8.7 | -9.3 | +20.3 |
| South 2 | Draw | 13% | 12% | 43% | 32% | -2.0 | +2.2 | -2.2 | +1.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke ron 8,000 from HIRO Shibata | 13% | 13% | 39% | 35% | -2.6 | -25.9 | -3.3 | +31.8 |
| South 3 | Shibukawa Namba ron 5,800 from Nagai Kosuke | 4% | 1% | 24% | 71% | +0.2 | -0.5 | +23.9 | -23.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | HIRO Shibata tsumo 1,100 | 5% | 1% | 62% | 32% | -2.9 | +4.0 | +2.2 | -3.2 |
| South 4 | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 7,800 | 2% | 0% | 73% | 25% | -6.3 | -2.2 | -27.6 | +36.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 1,000 from HIRO Shibata | 1% | 0% | 13% | 87% | +5.4 | -6.8 | -2.9 | +4.3 |