Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/3 Game 2
Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+89.6pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Aiko Hinata tsumo 18,000, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +47.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 1,300 from Kei Nakabayashi | 24% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -4.1 | -2.4 | +0.7 | +5.8 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 21% | 24% | 25% | 29% | -20.0 | -4.8 | +26.4 | -1.6 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 17% | 46% | 26% | -7.2 | +3.2 | +1.4 | +2.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 18,000 | 7% | 18% | 47% | 28% | -10.0 | -12.7 | +38.3 | -15.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 16,000 | 2% | 6% | 83% | 9% | +35.9 | -11.1 | -14.4 | -10.4 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 2,700 | 11% | 6% | 73% | 10% | +0.1 | -3.1 | +8.7 | -5.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 4% | 84% | 4% | -5.1 | -1.2 | +1.3 | +5.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 4% | 4% | 88% | 4% | -1.5 | -9.0 | -4.0 | +14.5 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 18,000 | 2% | 1% | 88% | 10% | -6.8 | -5.5 | +22.5 | -10.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -2.6 | -2.1 | +6.4 | -1.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -5.4 | +1.5 | +3.0 | +0.9 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Arisa Date | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -4.4 | -5.2 | -16.5 | +26.1 |
| South 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 18,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | -33.6 | +15.2 | -5.0 | +23.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 0% | 84% | 16% | -2.6 | -0.8 | -5.8 | +9.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 72% | 28% | -5.7 | -6.9 | -34.8 | +47.4 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Takaki Asai ron 2,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -4.4 | +4.9 | +0.6 | -1.1 |