Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/3 Game 2
Hinata Aiko finished 1st (+89.6pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Hinata Aiko tsumo 18,000, which moved Hinata Aiko's expected points by +47.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Asai Takaki Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hinata Aiko ron 1,300 from Nakabayashi Kei | 26% | 25% | 23% | 25% | -7.0 | -4.1 | +2.2 | +8.9 |
| East 2 | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 21% | 23% | 25% | 31% | -19.3 | -1.0 | +24.1 | -3.8 |
| East 3 | Draw | 11% | 19% | 43% | 27% | -8.7 | +0.1 | +3.3 | +5.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 18,000 | 7% | 17% | 46% | 29% | -9.2 | -11.3 | +38.6 | -18.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 16,000 | 2% | 6% | 83% | 10% | +36.2 | -10.7 | -14.2 | -11.2 |
| East 4 | Date Arisa tsumo 2,700 | 12% | 5% | 73% | 9% | 0.0 | -3.4 | +8.9 | -5.5 |
| South 1 | Draw | 9% | 3% | 84% | 4% | -5.3 | -2.3 | +0.8 | +6.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 3,900 from Date Arisa | 4% | 4% | 88% | 5% | -0.2 | -7.7 | -4.3 | +12.3 |
| South 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 18,000 | 4% | 0% | 87% | 9% | -9.1 | -5.9 | +22.6 | -7.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | -1.6 | -2.3 | +6.8 | -2.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -5.5 | +1.3 | +2.7 | +1.6 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 12,000 from Date Arisa | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -4.3 | -4.8 | -16.2 | +25.2 |
| South 4 | Hinata Aiko ron 18,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | -33.8 | +15.2 | -4.7 | +23.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 0% | 84% | 16% | -2.2 | -1.5 | -5.6 | +9.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 73% | 27% | -6.4 | -5.8 | -35.2 | +47.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Asai Takaki ron 2,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -3.9 | +4.6 | +0.5 | -1.2 |