Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/6 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+76.1pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Kosuke Nagai, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +24.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Megumu Aikawa 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Megumu Aikawa Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 3,900 from Megumu Aikawa | 24% | 25% | 27% | 25% | +0.1 | -11.2 | -3.9 | +15.0 |
| East 2 | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 6,000 | 23% | 17% | 24% | 37% | -7.5 | +15.8 | -4.8 | -3.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 19% | 26% | 21% | 35% | -24.5 | -0.4 | +24.6 | +0.2 |
| East 3 | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,900 from Futoshi Watanabe | 7% | 25% | 36% | 31% | +3.5 | -1.9 | +13.2 | -14.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 21% | 49% | 21% | -0.8 | +5.3 | +1.2 | -5.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 26% | 49% | 18% | +2.6 | -4.9 | +2.6 | -0.3 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 8% | 22% | 51% | 18% | -7.7 | -1.4 | +14.2 | -5.1 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 5% | 18% | 65% | 12% | -7.8 | +1.2 | -3.0 | +9.6 |
| East 4 | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 18% | 63% | 16% | -5.0 | +21.0 | -3.6 | -12.4 |
| South 1 | Kosuke Nagai ron 7,700 from Megumu Aikawa | 2% | 33% | 57% | 8% | +15.3 | -19.5 | +1.9 | +2.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 5,200 from Kosuke Nagai | 6% | 18% | 66% | 10% | -14.5 | -2.9 | +17.8 | -0.4 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 8% | 86% | 5% | -3.9 | -13.4 | +0.5 | +16.8 |
| South 3 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 1% | 90% | 8% | -2.9 | -3.4 | +10.6 | -4.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | -1.3 | -2.8 | +1.8 | +2.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 7,700 from Kosuke Nagai | 0% | 0% | 97% | 3% | -10.1 | +0.4 | +10.1 | -0.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | -2.6 | +20.5 | -5.4 | -12.6 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -4.4 | -18.3 | -5.7 | +28.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 3,900 from Kosuke Nagai | 0% | 0% | 94% | 6% | -3.9 | -0.5 | -1.1 | +5.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Megumu Aikawa ron 12,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 0% | 0% | 92% | 8% | -1.2 | +34.4 | +3.9 | -37.1 |