Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

10/6 Game 2

Shibukawa Namba finished 1st (+76.1pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Nagai Kosuke, which moved Shibukawa Namba's expected points by +24.1.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Shibukawa Namba● Nagai Kosuke● Aikawa Megumu● Watanabe Futoshi0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Shibukawa● Nagai● Aikawa● Watanabe
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultNagai Kosuke
1st-place chance
Aikawa Megumu
1st-place chance
Shibukawa Namba
1st-place chance
Watanabe Futoshi
1st-place chance
Nagai Kosuke
Expected pt change
Aikawa Megumu
Expected pt change
Shibukawa Namba
Expected pt change
Watanabe Futoshi
Expected pt change
East 1Watanabe Futoshi ron 3,900 from Aikawa Megumu24%25%26%26%+1.4-14.1-3.2+15.9
East 2Aikawa Megumu tsumo 6,00023%17%23%37%-10.6+19.2-4.7-3.8
East 2, 1 honbaShibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Nagai Kosuke17%28%21%34%-20.8-2.0+24.1-1.3
East 3Shibukawa Namba ron 3,900 from Watanabe Futoshi9%24%37%31%-0.4-1.1+13.4-12.0
East 3, 1 honbaDraw8%22%48%22%+1.8+4.1+1.7-7.6
East 3, 2 honbaDraw8%25%50%17%+2.0-4.0+4.0-2.0
East 3, 3 honbaShibukawa Namba ron 2,000 from Nagai Kosuke8%23%54%16%-6.7-3.4+12.1-2.0
East 3, 4 honbaWatanabe Futoshi ron 1,000 from Nagai Kosuke5%16%66%13%-8.8+1.8-3.1+10.1
East 4Aikawa Megumu tsumo 8,0003%16%64%17%-3.8+22.5-4.1-14.5
South 1Nagai Kosuke ron 7,700 from Aikawa Megumu2%33%57%8%+14.7-18.8+4.0+0.1
South 1, 1 honbaShibukawa Namba ron 5,200 from Nagai Kosuke5%20%66%8%-14.6-3.7+16.0+2.3
South 2Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 5,2000%8%86%6%-4.4-12.6+0.8+16.2
South 3Shibukawa Namba tsumo 7,8000%2%90%8%-2.2-4.1+10.5-4.2
South 3, 1 honbaDraw0%0%97%3%-1.8-2.4+1.9+2.3
South 3, 2 honbaShibukawa Namba ron 7,700 from Nagai Kosuke0%0%97%3%-10.0+0.2+9.3+0.4
South 3, 3 honbaAikawa Megumu tsumo 8,0000%0%98%2%-3.1+19.8-4.7-12.1
South 4Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,0000%0%99%1%-3.8-17.3-5.6+26.7
South 4, 1 honbaWatanabe Futoshi ron 3,900 from Nagai Kosuke0%0%95%5%-4.1-0.9-1.1+6.0
South 4, 2 honbaAikawa Megumu ron 12,000 from Watanabe Futoshi0%0%92%8%-1.0+34.2+3.7-36.9

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)