Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

10/9 Table B Game 1

Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+54.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Sonoda Ken ron 3,900 from Hinata Aiko, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +22.8.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Sonoda Ken● Shibukawa Namba● Hinata Aiko● Kurosawa Saki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Sonoda● Shibukawa● Hinata● Kurosawa
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSonoda Ken
1st-place chance
Shibukawa Namba
1st-place chance
Hinata Aiko
1st-place chance
Kurosawa Saki
1st-place chance
Sonoda Ken
Expected pt change
Shibukawa Namba
Expected pt change
Hinata Aiko
Expected pt change
Kurosawa Saki
Expected pt change
East 1Hinata Aiko ron 8,000 from Kurosawa Saki25%25%25%24%-1.2-1.4+20.4-17.7
East 2Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,00023%23%40%14%+22.7-11.2-5.7-5.9
East 3Draw40%15%34%11%+10.3-4.1-4.9-1.2
East 4, 1 honbaDraw51%11%28%10%+1.2-3.6+0.5+1.9
East 4, 2 honbaKurosawa Saki tsumo 6,00051%11%28%10%-4.6-8.6-6.2+19.4
East 4, 3 honbaSonoda Ken tsumo 1,10047%8%25%20%+6.9-1.2-1.4-4.3
South 1Hinata Aiko tsumo 8,00056%7%22%15%-13.7-6.6+27.4-7.1
South 2Draw36%5%48%10%+2.0+4.0-3.4-2.6
South 2, 1 honbaSonoda Ken tsumo 2,00039%6%44%10%+16.4-8.7-5.6-2.0
South 3Hinata Aiko tsumo 2,10062%0%30%7%-6.5-3.4+10.7-0.8
South 3, 1 honbaSonoda Ken ron 3,900 from Hinata Aiko49%0%44%6%+22.8-1.4-21.8+0.4
South 4Kurosawa Saki tsumo 6,00089%0%7%4%-3.3-4.0-4.1+11.4
South 4, 1 honbaDraw86%0%6%8%-3.2+0.8-2.5+4.9
South 4, 2 honbaShibukawa Namba tsumo 12,00081%0%7%12%+4.3+32.6-0.1-36.8

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)