Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/10 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+77.4pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 16,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +42.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 26% | 24% | +3.5 | -2.8 | +2.8 | -3.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 29% | 22% | 27% | 22% | -14.8 | +24.3 | -6.4 | -3.1 |
| East 2 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 41% | 21% | 21% | -8.4 | +29.6 | -8.7 | -12.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 2,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 9% | 68% | 13% | 10% | -0.9 | +4.9 | -7.0 | +3.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 16,000 | 8% | 72% | 10% | 10% | -12.4 | -19.2 | +42.6 | -11.0 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Arisa Date | 6% | 50% | 37% | 8% | -11.3 | +16.9 | -4.5 | -1.2 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 2% | 68% | 25% | 6% | +7.4 | +2.6 | +0.9 | -10.9 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 3% | 72% | 23% | 2% | +26.5 | -27.9 | +4.9 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 13% | 43% | 40% | 4% | +5.8 | -1.7 | +1.0 | -5.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 16,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 16% | 39% | 42% | 3% | -9.8 | -9.5 | +41.6 | -22.3 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 12% | 86% | 0% | -0.1 | -8.9 | +10.1 | -1.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 98% | 0% | -3.2 | +1.4 | -0.9 | +2.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 5,200 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +24.7 | -22.8 | +0.4 | -2.3 |