Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/10 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+77.4pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 16,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +42.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 27% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -0.8 | -2.6 | +4.2 | -0.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 24% | -11.8 | +23.7 | -5.7 | -6.2 |
| East 2 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 41% | 23% | 19% | -8.4 | +26.4 | -9.4 | -8.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 2,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 10% | 65% | 14% | 11% | +0.1 | +7.3 | -6.8 | -0.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 16,000 | 8% | 72% | 11% | 9% | -12.6 | -20.5 | +42.3 | -9.2 |
| East 3 | Sonoda Ken ron 5,200 from Date Arisa | 6% | 49% | 37% | 8% | -12.2 | +19.2 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| East 4 | Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 3% | 69% | 22% | 6% | +7.6 | +3.3 | +1.3 | -12.2 |
| South 1 | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken | 2% | 74% | 22% | 2% | +24.4 | -29.1 | +7.5 | -2.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 12% | 43% | 42% | 3% | +7.1 | -3.4 | +0.8 | -4.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 16,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 16% | 39% | 42% | 3% | -8.4 | -8.5 | +39.9 | -22.9 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 13% | 85% | 0% | -0.9 | -8.6 | +10.7 | -1.2 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 1% | 98% | 0% | -2.3 | +0.8 | -1.0 | +2.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 5,200 from Sonoda Ken | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +23.7 | -22.2 | +0.4 | -1.9 |