Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/13 Game 2
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+60.0pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,200 from Mari Takamiya, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +29.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Geki Shimoishi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Geki Shimoishi Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -20.0 | +32.9 | -6.2 | -6.7 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 12% | 49% | 20% | 19% | 0.0 | +5.9 | -0.1 | -5.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 11% | 55% | 18% | 16% | +2.5 | -10.3 | -1.4 | +9.2 |
| East 3 | Geki Shimoishi tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 45% | 18% | 22% | -9.8 | -9.9 | +31.4 | -11.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Geki Shimoishi | 10% | 34% | 40% | 15% | -3.0 | +2.2 | -22.8 | +23.6 |
| East 4 | Geki Shimoishi tsumo 4,000 | 9% | 38% | 22% | 31% | -3.3 | -2.7 | +12.9 | -6.9 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 34% | 33% | 25% | -14.9 | -5.2 | -5.7 | +25.8 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,500 from Mari Takamiya | 1% | 27% | 24% | 47% | -1.5 | +3.2 | -2.5 | +0.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 29% | 23% | 47% | +5.6 | -6.4 | -0.8 | +1.6 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 24% | 22% | 52% | -0.1 | -3.7 | +6.6 | -2.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,200 from Mari Takamiya | 3% | 22% | 27% | 48% | -12.3 | -11.0 | -6.4 | +29.7 |
| South 4 | Geki Shimoishi ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 0% | 4% | 6% | 91% | -0.5 | -8.7 | +6.5 | +2.7 |