Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

10/16 Game 1

Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+63.2pt). The game was decided in South 3, 3 honba: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 7,800, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +39.8.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance	Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance	Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance	Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance	Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change	Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change	Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change	Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change
East 1	Saki Kurosawa ron 3,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto	26%	23%	27%	23%	-15.4	+15.2	-1.9	+2.2
East 2	Daisuke Suzuki ron 2,000 from Hisato Sasaki	15%	34%	25%	25%	+2.7	-2.0	-8.8	+8.1
East 3	Exhaustive draw	17%	31%	20%	32%	-4.9	-2.2	+7.9	-0.8
East 3, 1 honba	Daisuke Suzuki ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto	16%	31%	24%	30%	-19.4	+0.4	-4.6	+23.6
East 4	Exhaustive draw	6%	28%	16%	50%	-5.1	-5.0	+5.5	+4.6
East 4, 1 honba	Saki Kurosawa tsumo 4,000	4%	22%	19%	55%	-2.4	+12.8	-4.2	-6.2
South 1	Exhaustive draw	3%	33%	16%	47%	+2.3	-1.7	+2.4	-3.0
South 1, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	5%	33%	18%	44%	-5.2	-7.5	+3.3	+9.4
South 2, 2 honba	Exhaustive draw	2%	23%	18%	57%	-4.1	-3.3	+7.9	-0.5
South 3, 3 honba	Hisato Sasaki tsumo 7,800	1%	19%	23%	57%	-4.2	-17.4	+39.8	-18.2
South 3, 4 honba	Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa	0%	4%	73%	23%	+5.4	-24.6	+24.0	-4.8
South 3, 5 honba	Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000	0%	0%	94%	6%	-9.9	+25.7	-8.7	-7.1
South 4	Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 12,000	0%	0%	93%	7%	-4.1	-8.9	-10.1	+23.1
South 4, 1 honba	Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,000	0%	0%	77%	23%	-0.8	+2.7	+9.2	-11.1

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)