Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/16 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+63.2pt). The game was decided in South 3, 3 honba: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 7,800, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +39.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Suzuki Daisuke 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Suzuki Daisuke Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kurosawa Saki ron 3,900 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -14.0 | +12.7 | +0.4 | +0.9 |
| East 2 | Suzuki Daisuke ron 2,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 16% | 33% | 25% | 26% | -0.9 | -0.8 | -8.5 | +10.2 |
| East 3 | Draw | 15% | 32% | 20% | 33% | -1.4 | -1.8 | +5.4 | -2.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Suzuki Daisuke ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 15% | 30% | 22% | 32% | -20.4 | -0.9 | -3.3 | +24.6 |
| East 4 | Draw | 6% | 26% | 15% | 53% | -2.8 | -3.2 | +5.0 | +0.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 4,000 | 5% | 22% | 20% | 53% | -1.8 | +10.4 | -2.5 | -6.1 |
| South 1 | Draw | 5% | 31% | 18% | 46% | +1.1 | -0.6 | +0.4 | -0.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 4% | 32% | 18% | 46% | -6.3 | -4.1 | +3.3 | +7.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Draw | 1% | 26% | 19% | 54% | -3.3 | -7.4 | +8.2 | +2.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 7,800 | 1% | 17% | 23% | 60% | -4.8 | -14.2 | +39.0 | -20.0 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 0% | 6% | 70% | 24% | +5.8 | -27.3 | +26.1 | -4.7 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 94% | 6% | -9.9 | +26.3 | -9.2 | -7.3 |
| South 4 | Suzuki Daisuke tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 1% | 93% | 7% | -4.0 | -8.8 | -11.8 | +24.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 74% | 25% | -1.0 | +2.6 | +10.6 | -12.2 |