Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

10/16 Game 2

Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+57.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +56.0.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Takamiya Mari● Nakada Kana● Setokuma Naoki● Ooi Takaharu0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Takamiya● Nakada● Setokuma● Ooi
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultTakamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Nakada Kana
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Ooi Takaharu
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Nakada Kana
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
Ooi Takaharu
Expected pt change
East 1Ooi Takaharu ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari26%24%27%24%-5.3+1.3-0.7+4.7
East 2Ooi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki22%25%25%28%+1.1-3.2-21.7+23.8
East 3Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,00020%19%12%48%+35.3-8.6-16.3-10.3
East 4Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,00048%13%5%34%+29.5-6.8-4.7-18.0
South 1Nakada Kana ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki83%5%2%10%+0.6+7.8-8.5+0.1
South 2Ooi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Nakada Kana86%6%1%8%+0.1-19.6+0.5+18.9
South 3Draw85%0%1%14%-2.3-2.2+4.50.0
South 3, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari82%0%2%16%-25.5-8.4+26.8+7.1
South 3, 2 honbaNakada Kana ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari54%1%7%38%-33.0+26.6-11.9+18.3
South 4Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,00012%7%3%77%+56.0-5.7-12.7-37.7

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)