Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/16 Game 2
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+57.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +56.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Nakada Kana 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Nakada Kana Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ooi Takaharu ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari | 26% | 24% | 27% | 24% | -5.3 | +1.3 | -0.7 | +4.7 |
| East 2 | Ooi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 22% | 25% | 25% | 28% | +1.1 | -3.2 | -21.7 | +23.8 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 19% | 12% | 48% | +35.3 | -8.6 | -16.3 | -10.3 |
| East 4 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 48% | 13% | 5% | 34% | +29.5 | -6.8 | -4.7 | -18.0 |
| South 1 | Nakada Kana ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 83% | 5% | 2% | 10% | +0.6 | +7.8 | -8.5 | +0.1 |
| South 2 | Ooi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Nakada Kana | 86% | 6% | 1% | 8% | +0.1 | -19.6 | +0.5 | +18.9 |
| South 3 | Draw | 85% | 0% | 1% | 14% | -2.3 | -2.2 | +4.5 | 0.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari | 82% | 0% | 2% | 16% | -25.5 | -8.4 | +26.8 | +7.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Nakada Kana ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari | 54% | 1% | 7% | 38% | -33.0 | +26.6 | -11.9 | +18.3 |
| South 4 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 7% | 3% | 77% | +56.0 | -5.7 | -12.7 | -37.7 |