Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/16 Game 2
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+57.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +56.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaharu Ooi ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 27% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -4.9 | +2.2 | +0.1 | +2.6 |
| East 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 23% | 26% | 25% | 26% | -1.3 | -7.6 | -19.7 | +28.6 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 18% | 14% | 50% | +36.4 | -7.6 | -17.7 | -11.2 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 50% | 11% | 5% | 34% | +29.3 | -4.8 | -5.7 | -18.8 |
| South 1 | Kana Nakada ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 83% | 5% | 2% | 10% | -0.9 | +9.0 | -7.5 | -0.6 |
| South 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Kana Nakada | 84% | 6% | 1% | 9% | +1.3 | -19.6 | -0.3 | +18.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 85% | 0% | 1% | 14% | -1.2 | -2.0 | +4.2 | -1.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 84% | 0% | 1% | 14% | -26.3 | -9.9 | +27.2 | +9.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kana Nakada ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 53% | 1% | 7% | 39% | -33.1 | +26.7 | -12.6 | +19.0 |
| South 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 6% | 2% | 80% | +56.1 | -5.4 | -11.9 | -38.9 |