Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/20 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+72.5pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +32.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazuma Ishii 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Kazuma Ishii Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 2,000 | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -3.2 | -3.9 | +5.4 | +1.6 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 6,000 | 21% | 23% | 29% | 26% | -7.4 | +18.7 | -4.8 | -6.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 1,100 | 17% | 38% | 25% | 20% | 0.0 | -1.4 | +3.3 | -1.9 |
| East 3 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 18,000 | 17% | 36% | 26% | 21% | -17.2 | -20.7 | +49.3 | -11.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaki Asai tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 13% | 72% | 9% | -2.7 | -4.7 | -10.5 | +17.9 |
| East 4 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Takaki Asai | 6% | 13% | 62% | 19% | -3.5 | +7.0 | +5.2 | -8.7 |
| South 1 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 16,000 | 4% | 15% | 70% | 11% | -15.9 | -8.1 | +27.8 | -3.7 |
| South 2 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 3% | 94% | 3% | -5.8 | +26.1 | -6.7 | -13.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 12,000 from Takaki Asai | 0% | 10% | 88% | 2% | +5.0 | +21.9 | -6.5 | -20.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 28% | 71% | 1% | -4.3 | +32.4 | -23.5 | -4.5 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Takaki Asai tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 75% | 25% | 0% | -4.1 | -0.5 | -3.1 | +7.7 |
| South 3 | Takaki Asai tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 80% | 20% | 0% | -6.6 | +4.0 | -11.1 | +13.7 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 94% | 5% | 1% | -1.0 | -3.5 | +4.1 | +0.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 88% | 11% | 1% | +4.2 | +3.8 | -4.7 | -3.3 |