Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/21 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+73.6pt). The game was decided in South 1, 6 honba: Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +31.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 24% | 23% | 25% | -6.2 | -5.0 | +6.0 | +5.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 18,000 from Arisa Date | 21% | 21% | 29% | 29% | -2.7 | +50.2 | -43.8 | -3.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 61% | 5% | 21% | -6.8 | +23.8 | -7.3 | -9.7 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 83% | 2% | 10% | -0.9 | +0.9 | -2.6 | +2.6 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 3,200 from Sho Shiratori | 5% | 83% | 2% | 9% | +17.0 | -0.2 | -3.4 | -13.5 |
| East 3 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 4,000 | 9% | 85% | 1% | 5% | -3.7 | +0.3 | -6.6 | +10.0 |
| East 4 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 18,000 | 6% | 86% | 1% | 7% | -14.7 | -14.1 | -7.1 | +35.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 5% | 67% | 0% | 28% | +1.5 | -11.8 | -1.4 | +11.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 51% | 0% | 43% | +2.7 | -3.1 | -0.6 | +1.1 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 7,800 | 8% | 47% | 0% | 45% | -7.8 | -12.2 | -2.9 | +22.9 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 25% | 0% | 72% | -0.8 | -1.9 | -1.9 | +4.6 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 21% | 0% | 77% | +3.0 | -2.8 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 3% | 18% | 0% | 79% | +31.9 | -30.4 | -1.8 | +0.3 |
| South 1, 7 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 7,800 | 12% | 6% | 0% | 82% | +21.4 | -7.8 | -2.6 | -10.9 |
| South 1, 8 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 5,800 from Sho Shiratori | 32% | 4% | 0% | 65% | +21.4 | +1.0 | -0.7 | -21.8 |
| South 1, 9 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 2,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 63% | 5% | 0% | 32% | +12.4 | -8.1 | +0.8 | -5.1 |
| South 1, 10 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 1,300 from Naoki Setokuma | 78% | 2% | 0% | 21% | -2.1 | -6.1 | +0.4 | +7.8 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 1,300 from Naoki Setokuma | 74% | 1% | 0% | 25% | +1.8 | -3.1 | +1.7 | -0.4 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 78% | 0% | 0% | 22% | -0.7 | +1.7 | +0.7 | -1.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 7,800 | 79% | 0% | 0% | 21% | -2.7 | -4.3 | +10.1 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 79% | 0% | 0% | 21% | -2.4 | -1.3 | +3.3 | +0.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,600 from Arisa Date | 77% | 0% | 0% | 23% | +1.9 | +2.8 | -6.9 | +2.2 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 1,000 from Sho Shiratori | 81% | 0% | 0% | 20% | +8.8 | +0.7 | +0.3 | -9.8 |