Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/21 Game 1
Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+73.6pt). The game was decided in South 1, 6 honba: Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +29.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -5.4 | -2.4 | +2.8 | +5.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Date Arisa | 23% | 23% | 26% | 28% | -2.1 | +48.9 | -43.2 | -3.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 62% | 5% | 19% | -9.1 | +23.5 | -5.6 | -8.8 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Draw | 6% | 84% | 2% | 9% | +2.4 | +1.0 | -4.0 | +0.6 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 3,200 from Shiratori Sho | 7% | 83% | 2% | 8% | +11.9 | -0.2 | -2.0 | -9.7 |
| East 3 | Shiratori Sho tsumo 4,000 | 8% | 85% | 2% | 5% | -0.2 | +0.3 | -7.0 | +6.9 |
| East 4 | Shiratori Sho tsumo 18,000 | 6% | 87% | 1% | 6% | -14.9 | -14.9 | -8.7 | +38.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 2,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 5% | 65% | 0% | 29% | +0.3 | -11.1 | +0.7 | +10.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Draw | 6% | 51% | 0% | 42% | +1.8 | -3.5 | -1.6 | +3.3 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 7,800 | 7% | 46% | 0% | 47% | -5.9 | -13.5 | -3.5 | +22.9 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Draw | 3% | 23% | 0% | 73% | -1.2 | -1.7 | -0.4 | +3.4 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Draw | 3% | 20% | 0% | 77% | +4.2 | -1.5 | -1.6 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 3% | 19% | 0% | 78% | +29.0 | -30.5 | -0.1 | +1.6 |
| South 1, 7 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 7,800 | 12% | 5% | 0% | 83% | +21.7 | -7.0 | -3.9 | -10.8 |
| South 1, 8 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 5,800 from Shiratori Sho | 30% | 4% | 0% | 65% | +23.9 | -0.1 | +0.4 | -24.2 |
| South 1, 9 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 2,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 66% | 4% | 0% | 30% | +10.9 | -7.8 | 0.0 | -3.2 |
| South 1, 10 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 1,300 from Setokuma Naoki | 78% | 2% | 0% | 20% | -3.7 | -5.6 | +0.2 | +9.1 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa ron 1,300 from Setokuma Naoki | 72% | 1% | 0% | 27% | +2.7 | -3.1 | +1.3 | -0.9 |
| South 3 | Draw | 77% | 0% | 0% | 23% | -0.1 | +1.4 | +0.8 | -2.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 7,800 | 78% | 0% | 0% | 22% | -3.4 | -3.8 | +10.3 | -3.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 78% | 0% | 1% | 22% | -1.6 | -2.7 | +4.6 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 2,600 from Date Arisa | 77% | 0% | 1% | 22% | +1.7 | +3.6 | -8.1 | +2.8 |
| South 4 | Nikaido Aki ron 1,000 from Shiratori Sho | 80% | 0% | 0% | 20% | +8.9 | +0.7 | +0.5 | -10.1 |