Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/27 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+61.4pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Date Arisa tsumo 18,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +54.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +5.5 | -2.2 | +0.2 | -3.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Hinata Aiko | 29% | 24% | 25% | 22% | +14.6 | -1.8 | -14.0 | +1.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 3,900 from Nagai Kosuke | 39% | 23% | 16% | 23% | -1.4 | -0.3 | +12.6 | -10.8 |
| East 2 | Draw | 37% | 22% | 24% | 18% | -1.3 | -2.4 | -2.8 | +6.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 6,000 | 38% | 19% | 22% | 21% | -5.4 | -7.4 | +19.8 | -7.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Nagai Kosuke ron 8,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 32% | 16% | 36% | 17% | -2.2 | -22.6 | -5.7 | +30.5 |
| East 4 | Hinata Aiko ron 8,000 from Date Arisa | 28% | 6% | 29% | 36% | -26.1 | -0.5 | +30.6 | -4.0 |
| South 1 | Draw | 10% | 4% | 60% | 26% | +2.0 | +3.3 | -9.3 | +4.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 18,000 | 12% | 6% | 48% | 33% | +54.0 | -13.1 | -21.8 | -19.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Nagai Kosuke ron 8,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 58% | 3% | 23% | 16% | -4.9 | -13.5 | -3.7 | +22.1 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa ron 1,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 49% | 1% | 19% | 31% | +6.6 | -4.0 | -2.3 | -0.2 |
| South 3 | Nagai Kosuke ron 5,200 from Hinata Aiko | 58% | 0% | 15% | 27% | +0.3 | -0.2 | -18.1 | +18.1 |
| South 4 | Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Nagai Kosuke | 55% | 0% | 1% | 45% | +20.7 | +0.3 | -0.6 | -20.4 |