Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/27 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+61.4pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Arisa Date tsumo 18,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +54.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +6.2 | -2.4 | -1.7 | -2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Aiko Hinata | 30% | 23% | 22% | 25% | +12.9 | -3.6 | -8.9 | -0.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 3,900 from Kosuke Nagai | 39% | 20% | 17% | 23% | -0.7 | +3.9 | +9.0 | -12.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 39% | 23% | 22% | 16% | -2.0 | -5.0 | -1.0 | +8.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 6,000 | 37% | 19% | 21% | 22% | -6.1 | -5.7 | +20.5 | -8.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 31% | 16% | 35% | 17% | -2.1 | -22.2 | -5.7 | +30.0 |
| East 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 29% | 7% | 28% | 36% | -24.8 | -0.7 | +28.7 | -3.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 5% | 58% | 27% | +1.0 | +2.3 | -8.7 | +5.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 18,000 | 11% | 6% | 49% | 34% | +54.3 | -12.7 | -20.3 | -21.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 58% | 3% | 24% | 15% | -4.4 | -13.3 | -4.8 | +22.5 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 1,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 50% | 1% | 19% | 30% | +5.9 | -3.8 | -3.8 | +1.7 |
| South 3 | Kosuke Nagai ron 5,200 from Aiko Hinata | 59% | 0% | 14% | 28% | +0.3 | -0.5 | -16.8 | +17.0 |
| South 4 | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 55% | 0% | 1% | 45% | +20.6 | +0.4 | -0.5 | -20.4 |