Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
10/28 Game 2
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+56.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +65.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 27% | 24% | +5.4 | +2.6 | -8.4 | +0.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,900 from Kana Nakada | 28% | 27% | 21% | 24% | +11.7 | -1.3 | -10.8 | +0.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | HIRO Shibata tsumo 8,000 | 36% | 25% | 16% | 24% | -12.6 | -5.3 | -4.4 | +22.3 |
| East 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 22% | 13% | 41% | +22.8 | -13.0 | -5.8 | -4.0 |
| East 3 | Kana Nakada tsumo 3,900 | 43% | 12% | 9% | 36% | -3.2 | -1.6 | +9.6 | -4.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 2,000 | 42% | 13% | 13% | 32% | +0.3 | +4.2 | -7.0 | +2.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 42% | 14% | 9% | 36% | -0.7 | +6.2 | -1.2 | -4.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kana Nakada tsumo 4,000 | 42% | 18% | 10% | 31% | -9.1 | -5.6 | +15.0 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 4,000 | 34% | 16% | 17% | 34% | +19.1 | -10.4 | -4.5 | -4.1 |
| South 3 | Kana Nakada tsumo 7,800 | 58% | 6% | 12% | 24% | -10.8 | -8.7 | +30.4 | -10.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | HIRO Shibata ron 6,400 from Futoshi Watanabe | 44% | 5% | 31% | 20% | -30.9 | -5.6 | 0.0 | +36.5 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 2% | 27% | 59% | +65.6 | -8.9 | -8.2 | -48.5 |