Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

10/30 Game 1

Shimoishi Geki finished 1st (+57.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Shimoishi Geki ron 8,000 from Akutsu Shota, which moved Shimoishi Geki's expected points by +30.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Shimoishi Geki● Akutsu Shota● Kurosawa Saki● Nagai Kosuke0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Shimoishi● Akutsu● Kurosawa● Nagai
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultAkutsu Shota
1st-place chance
Shimoishi Geki
1st-place chance
Kurosawa Saki
1st-place chance
Nagai Kosuke
1st-place chance
Akutsu Shota
Expected pt change
Shimoishi Geki
Expected pt change
Kurosawa Saki
Expected pt change
Nagai Kosuke
Expected pt change
East 1Kurosawa Saki tsumo 8,00025%25%25%25%-9.8-7.1+20.4-3.5
East 2Shimoishi Geki tsumo 7,80018%21%40%22%-7.4+22.7-6.4-8.9
East 2, 1 honbaKurosawa Saki ron 3,900 from Shimoishi Geki14%35%34%17%-1.2-14.4+13.1+2.5
East 3Shimoishi Geki ron 8,000 from Kurosawa Saki13%23%46%18%+0.9+24.2-23.8-1.3
East 4Shimoishi Geki ron 3,900 from Nagai Kosuke13%45%25%17%-1.1+15.4-1.3-13.0
South 1Draw11%63%19%7%+7.5-3.4-1.1-3.0
South 1, 1 honbaNagai Kosuke tsumo 8,00014%58%20%8%-21.4-1.6-7.6+30.5
South 2Shimoishi Geki tsumo 1,5004%59%16%20%-1.6+3.6-0.3-1.7
South 2, 1 honbaAkutsu Shota tsumo 12,0004%63%14%19%+43.1-19.2-13.5-10.4
South 3Nagai Kosuke tsumo 4,00029%40%12%18%-4.0+6.7-15.5+12.7
South 4Shimoishi Geki ron 8,000 from Akutsu Shota22%54%3%21%-27.1+30.5-6.0+2.6

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)