Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

10/30 Table B Game 1

Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+56.0pt). The game was decided in East 2: Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Maki Asami, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +24.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Yoshihiro Matsumoto● Sayaka Kayamori● Arisa Date● Maki Asami0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Yoshihiro● Sayaka● Arisa● Maki
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultYoshihiro Matsumoto
1st-place chance
Sayaka Kayamori
1st-place chance
Arisa Date
1st-place chance
Maki Asami
1st-place chance
Yoshihiro Matsumoto
Expected pt change
Sayaka Kayamori
Expected pt change
Arisa Date
Expected pt change
Maki Asami
Expected pt change
East 1Maki Asami tsumo 8,00024%24%24%28%-11.6-4.1-4.5+20.2
East 2Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Maki Asami16%21%20%43%+24.2-3.4+0.1-20.9
East 3Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,200 from Sayaka Kayamori33%19%21%27%+15.6-13.3-3.2+0.8
East 4Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Sayaka Kayamori47%11%16%25%+7.5-5.4+1.3-3.4
South 1Arisa Date tsumo 8,00057%8%15%20%-14.0-6.5+28.1-7.6
South 2Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Sayaka Kayamori39%7%38%16%+3.1-13.4+10.7-0.5
South 3Exhaustive draw40%1%47%12%+8.5-2.9-7.8+2.2
South 4, 1 honbaYoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,000 from Maki Asami54%0%33%13%+23.3-2.1-10.5-10.7

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)