Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

10/31 Game 1

Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+60.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Akina Mizuhara ron 18,000 from Masato Hagiwara, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +53.3.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance	Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance	Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance	Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance	Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change	Aki Nikaido Expected pt change	Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change	Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change
East 1	Exhaustive draw	25%	24%	24%	27%	+2.8	+2.6	-0.3	-5.2
East 1, 1 honba	Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Hisato Sasaki	27%	26%	25%	22%	-2.6	+10.9	-3.5	-4.8
East 2	Hisato Sasaki ron 1,300 from Aki Nikaido	24%	34%	22%	20%	+0.8	-3.7	+0.7	+2.2
East 3	Exhaustive draw	25%	31%	22%	22%	-1.8	+6.3	-3.6	-0.9
East 4, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	24%	35%	20%	21%	+3.0	+8.2	+0.2	-11.3
South 1, 2 honba	Akina Mizuhara ron 18,000 from Masato Hagiwara	25%	44%	19%	13%	+53.3	-11.2	-42.6	+0.5
South 1, 3 honba	Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000	74%	18%	2%	6%	-11.4	-3.0	+25.6	-11.2
South 2	Aki Nikaido ron 1,500 from Hisato Sasaki	68%	21%	6%	5%	-1.8	+5.6	+1.9	-5.8
South 2, 1 honba	Aki Nikaido ron 7,700 from Masato Hagiwara	65%	25%	7%	4%	-6.6	+20.6	-16.8	+2.8
South 2, 2 honba	Exhaustive draw	48%	45%	3%	3%	+2.7	+2.2	-1.8	-3.1
South 2, 3 honba	Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara	50%	46%	2%	3%	+1.2	-1.1	-8.1	+8.0
South 3	Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara	51%	44%	2%	3%	+3.8	-5.5	-15.2	+16.9
South 4	Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Hisato Sasaki	60%	33%	0%	7%	+17.1	-11.4	+12.6	-18.3

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)