Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/3 Game 2
HIRO Shibata finished 1st (+100.2pt). The game was decided in East 3: HIRO Shibata tsumo 18,000, which moved HIRO Shibata's expected points by +40.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 23% | 24% | 25% | -4.3 | +2.7 | +1.1 | +0.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | HIRO Shibata tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 26% | 26% | 26% | -4.9 | -14.9 | +24.7 | -4.8 |
| East 3 | HIRO Shibata tsumo 18,000 | 18% | 14% | 46% | 22% | -15.1 | -10.7 | +40.5 | -14.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 4% | 84% | 7% | -8.5 | -7.9 | -12.3 | +28.6 |
| East 4 | HIRO Shibata tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 4% | 72% | 21% | -2.7 | -4.0 | +21.3 | -14.6 |
| South 1 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 1% | 93% | 4% | +11.4 | -5.0 | -1.9 | -4.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 1% | 93% | 3% | +1.7 | +1.6 | -3.3 | 0.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 3% | 2% | 90% | 5% | +29.1 | -22.0 | -2.6 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 3 honba | HIRO Shibata ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 11% | 0% | 85% | 4% | -4.5 | -10.4 | +13.9 | +0.9 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,800 from Daisuke Suzuki | 1% | 0% | 96% | 2% | +2.9 | +7.1 | +0.9 | -10.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,500 from Daisuke Suzuki | 1% | 0% | 97% | 1% | -0.8 | +3.2 | -0.5 | -1.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 0% | 97% | 1% | +7.9 | -5.8 | -1.2 | -0.9 |
| South 3 | HIRO Shibata tsumo 18,000 | 2% | 0% | 97% | 1% | -7.3 | -5.8 | +19.8 | -6.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -3.7 | +4.3 | -1.4 | +0.8 |
| South 4 | HIRO Shibata ron 1,300 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +0.4 | -0.1 | +1.8 | -2.1 |