Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/4 Game 1
Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+87.1pt). The game was decided in East 3: Kosuke Nagai tsumo 18,000, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +35.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -17.6 | -6.9 | +31.4 | -6.9 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 5,200 from Takaki Asai | 12% | 19% | 50% | 19% | -13.2 | -4.3 | +1.4 | +16.1 |
| East 3 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 18,000 | 8% | 14% | 52% | 27% | -9.9 | -10.8 | +35.2 | -14.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 5% | 85% | 9% | -1.0 | -2.8 | +1.3 | +2.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 7,800 | 1% | 3% | 86% | 10% | -5.3 | -2.7 | +13.8 | -5.8 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 94% | 4% | +0.1 | +0.7 | +1.5 | -2.3 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 95% | 4% | +1.1 | -3.4 | +0.5 | +1.8 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 1% | 94% | 4% | -7.7 | -7.4 | -8.6 | +23.7 |
| East 4 | Takaki Asai ron 8,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 0% | 1% | 89% | 10% | +14.6 | -4.2 | -10.1 | -0.3 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 1% | 85% | 13% | +4.4 | -1.8 | -1.4 | -1.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 2% | 83% | 14% | -8.7 | -2.7 | -8.4 | +19.8 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 1% | 69% | 30% | -12.3 | +22.2 | -3.8 | -6.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 3% | 70% | 27% | -1.7 | -8.8 | +18.4 | -7.9 |
| South 3 | Takaki Asai ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 0% | 91% | 9% | +13.3 | -3.1 | +1.7 | -11.9 |
| South 4 | Kosuke Nagai ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 0% | 97% | 3% | -7.4 | +6.9 | +13.9 | -13.4 |