Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/4 Game 1
Nagai Kosuke finished 1st (+87.1pt). The game was decided in East 3: Nagai Kosuke tsumo 18,000, which moved Nagai Kosuke's expected points by +38.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 25% | 27% | 24% | -15.6 | -8.2 | +28.6 | -4.8 |
| East 2 | Kurosawa Saki ron 5,200 from Asai Takaki | 14% | 18% | 50% | 19% | -12.8 | -2.2 | -0.8 | +15.9 |
| East 3 | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 18,000 | 8% | 16% | 48% | 28% | -10.4 | -12.5 | +38.4 | -15.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 2% | 4% | 85% | 9% | -0.8 | -2.8 | +0.5 | +3.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 7,800 | 3% | 3% | 85% | 10% | -5.1 | -4.2 | +15.2 | -5.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Draw | 1% | 1% | 95% | 4% | -1.6 | +3.0 | +0.6 | -2.0 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Draw | 1% | 1% | 94% | 4% | +1.1 | -3.9 | +1.2 | +1.6 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 95% | 3% | -7.1 | -6.6 | -8.9 | +22.6 |
| East 4 | Asai Takaki ron 8,000 from Nagai Kosuke | 0% | 1% | 90% | 9% | +14.0 | -5.1 | -11.0 | +2.1 |
| South 1 | Draw | 2% | 1% | 84% | 13% | +4.8 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 2% | 83% | 13% | -8.8 | -3.8 | -6.9 | +19.5 |
| South 2 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 1% | 71% | 29% | -12.6 | +22.0 | -5.4 | -4.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 3% | 68% | 29% | -1.6 | -8.6 | +19.4 | -9.3 |
| South 3 | Asai Takaki ron 8,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 0% | 0% | 91% | 9% | +14.6 | -4.1 | +1.3 | -11.8 |
| South 4 | Nagai Kosuke ron 12,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 0% | 0% | 97% | 3% | -8.6 | +7.8 | +13.8 | -13.0 |